Results 61 to 70 of about 392,335 (195)

A bayesian non-parametric approach for estimating COVID-19's vaccine effectiveness in a stochastic epidemic model

Informatics in Medicine Unlocked, 2023
Objectives: This paper proposes a new stochastic epidemic modeling approach to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccinations based on individual vaccination status using only observational data.
Gongzheng Yao, Di Zhang, Yingbo Liu
doaj   +1 more source

Does Social Distancing Matter for Infectious Disease Propagation? An SEIR Model and Gompertz Law Based Cellular Automaton

Entropy, 2022
In this paper, we present stochastic synchronous cellular automaton defined on a square lattice. The automaton rules are based on the SEIR (susceptible → exposed → infected → recovered) model with probabilistic parameters gathered from real-world data on
Szymon Biernacki, Krzysztof Malarz
doaj   +1 more source

Simulations for the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) Model in the Forecast of Epidemic Outbreak

Journal of Engineering Technology and Applied Physics
Mathematical modelling based on the compartmental Susceptible – Exposed – Infected - Recovered (SEIR) model is proposed in this paper to study the pandemic outbreak.
Mei Feng Liu, Boo Hui Ling
doaj   +1 more source

Epidemic transmission on SEIR stochastic models with nonlinear incidence rate [PDF]

Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 2016
Our interest is to quantify the spread of an infective process with latency period and generic incidence rate that takes place in a finite and homogeneous population.Within a stochastic framework, two random variables are defined to describe the variations of the number of secondary cases produced by an index case inside of a closed population ...
openaire   +3 more sources

Modeling epidemics: A primer and Numerus Model Builder implementation

Epidemics, 2018
Epidemiological models are dominated by compartmental models, of which SIR formulations are the most commonly used. These formulations can be continuous or discrete (in either the state-variable values or time), deterministic or stochastic, or spatially ...
Wayne M. Getz, Richard Salter, Oliver Muellerklein, Hyun S. Yoon, Krti Tallam   +4 more
doaj   +1 more source

Petri Net and Probabilistic Model Checking Based Approach for the Modelling, Simulation and Verification of Internet Worm Propagation. [PDF]

PLoS ONE, 2015
Internet worms are analogous to biological viruses since they can infect a host and have the ability to propagate through a chosen medium. To prevent the spread of a worm or to grasp how to regulate a prevailing worm, compartmental models are commonly ...
Misbah Razzaq, Jamil Ahmad
doaj   +1 more source

Super-spreading events initiated the exponential growth phase of COVID-19 with ℛ0 higher than initially estimated

Royal Society Open Science, 2020
The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the coronavirus disease 2019 has been estimated to range between 2 and 4. Here, we used an SEIR model that properly accounts for the distribution of the latent period and, based on empirical estimates ...
Marek Kochańczyk, Frederic Grabowski, Tomasz Lipniacki   +2 more
doaj   +1 more source

Numerical Investigation of a Diffusive SIR Model: Focus on Positivity Preservation

Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT In this paper, we consider a system of semilinear partial differential equations (PDEs) representing a spatially extended SIR epidemic model. A brief analytical investigation of the well‐posedness and positivity of the solutions is provided in the appendix, while the main focus is on the numerical treatment of the model.
Rahele Mosleh, Claudia Panico, Messoud Efendiyev   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

e3SIM: Epidemiological‐ecological‐evolutionary simulation framework for genomic epidemiology

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, EarlyView.
Abstract Infectious disease dynamics result from the complex interplay of epidemiological, ecological and evolutionary (epi‐eco‐evo) processes. Accurately modelling these coupled processes is crucial for understanding pathogen spread and informing public health strategies.
Peiyu Xu, Shenni Liang, Andrew Hahn, Vivian Zhao, Wai Tung ‘Jack’ Lo, Benjamin C. Haller, Benjamin Sobkowiak, Melanie H. Chitwood, Caroline Colijn, Ted Cohen, Kyu Y. Rhee, Philipp W. Messer, Martin T. Wells, Andrew G. Clark, Jaehee Kim   +14 more
wiley   +1 more source

Building mean field ODE models using the generalized linear chain trick & Markov chain theory

Journal of Biological Dynamics, 2021
The well known linear chain trick (LCT) allows modellers to derive mean field ODEs that assume gamma (Erlang) distributed passage times, by transitioning individuals sequentially through a chain of sub-states.
Paul J. Hurtado, Cameron Richards
doaj   +1 more source