Results 151 to 160 of about 70,613 (293)

Forecast verification using information and noise

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Verification of weather forecasts is usually expressed in terms of total error metrics. This is useful for end users of the forecasts but does not allow evaluation of the intrinsic information content of the forecasts. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new total error decomposition into information and noise error measures, connect it to ...
Massimo Bonavita, Alan J. Geer
wiley   +1 more source

Assimilation of solar‐induced fluorescence satellite observations in the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts integrated forecast system

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This work demonstrates the potential of the assimilation of satellite solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) retrievals at eight‐day and 0.1° resolutions in the integrated forecast system (IFS), developed at the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), at global scale, to provide a more realistic representation of the vegetation temporal ...
Sébastien Garrigues, Patricia de Rosnay, Peter Weston, Christoph Rüdiger, Cédric Bacour, David Fairbairn, Pierre Vanderbecken, Oscar Rojas‐Munoz, Ewan Pinnington, Anna Agusti‐Panareda, Souhail Boussetta, Jean‐Christophe Calvet, Richard Engelen   +12 more
wiley   +1 more source

Mesoscale and microphysical processes leading to extreme hourly rainfall prior to the merger of two mesoscale convective systems in Central China

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Short‐term extreme rainfall can be produced by the variation of low‐level warm moist airflow during mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) approaching another. The cold outflow of the rapidly moving MCS intensifies the warm moist airflow in front, enhancing the convergence and ascending motion in the quasi‐stationary MCS.
Xiaoyu Gao, Yali Luo, Jinfang Yin, Chong Wu   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Exceptionally poor and good medium‐range forecasts of the large‐scale circulation over Europe in ERA5 reforecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study investigates year‐round exceptionally poor and good day‐6 forecasts of the 500‐hPa geopotential height field over Europe using 45 years of ERA5 reforecasts and applies a weather regime perspective to analyse large‐scale pattern evolution and regime transitions.
Seraphine Hauser, Steven M. Cavallo, Linus Magnusson, Jonathan E. Martin, David B. Parsons   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

A composite‐loss graph neural network for the multivariate post‐processing of ensemble weather forecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The dual graph neural network (dualGNN), trained with a composite loss combining the energy score (ES) and variogram score (VS), consistently outperformed models optimized solely for ES or the continuous ranked probability score in the multivariate setting, as well as empirical copula approaches.
Mária Lakatos
wiley   +1 more source

Moisture and wind effects of Rossby waves on Western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone breakdown events

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
(a) Organized convection: clouds are clustered at the southern edge of the domain, aligning with the warmest SST. Northeasterly winds prevail, facilitating convection confinement to the southern part of the domain. (b) ITCZ breakdown: the clouds are spread throughout the domain.
Alejandro Casallas, Adrian Mark Tompkins, Caroline Muller   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Infrared land surface emissivity dynamics in the Taklimakan desert from 2001 to 2023. [PDF]

Sci Rep
Ma Y, Mamtimin A, Zeng K, Aihaiti A, Liu J, Liu Z.   +5 more
europepmc   +1 more source

Spatial and temporal variability of wet spells and their role in wet and dry summers and winters in Australia

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The change in the frequency of wet spells in tropical Australia in summer primarily contributes to the change in precipitation between wet and dry years. In the extratropics, both the frequency and intensity of wet spells are important, especially in winter.
Sunil Pariyar, Christian Jakob, Michael Barnes, Martin Singh, Michael Reeder   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

A theory-guided multi-scale temporal fusion network for road surface temperature nowcasting. [PDF]

iScience
Wang K, Bao Y, Wei X, Zhu C, Liu D.
europepmc   +1 more source

COBASE: A new copula‐based shuffling method for ensemble weather forecast postprocessing

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We propose COBASE, a novel copula‐based postprocessing methododology that combines the strengths of multivariate parametric correction with non‐parametric rank‐based approaches. We consider two case studies for multi‐site temperature in Austria and multi‐site temperature and dew‐point temperature in the Netherlands.
Maurits Flos, Bastien François, Irene Schicker, Kirien Whan, Elisa Perrone   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source