The win-first probability under interest force [PDF]
In a classical risk model under constant interest force, we study the probability that the surplus of an insurance company reaches an upper barrier before a lower barrier. We define this probability as win-first probability.
Stéphane Loisel, Didier Rullière
core
Paul Hertz' contribution to proof theory: normal-form results for deductions. [PDF]
Bodner M.
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This paper argues that Bayesian probability theory is a general method for machine learning. From two well-founded axioms, the theory is capable of accomplishing learning tasks that are incremental or non-incremental, supervised or unsupervised.
Wei-min Shen, General Method
core
An Information-Geometric Justification for Composite Coherence in Event-Based Narrative Extraction. [PDF]
Keith-Norambuena B.
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Algorithms for precise and imprecise conditional probability assessments
In this paper we give some procedures for checking coherence of precise and imprecise conditional probability assessments.We give an example of a function P which satisfies the axioms of a conditional probability, but is not coherent. We also analyze the
GILIO, ANGELO
core
Divergent patterns of probabilistic reasoning in humans and GPT-5. [PDF]
Imannezhad P, Pothos EM, Wills AJ.
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Second-Order Ambiguity in Very Low Probability Risks: Food Safety Valuation [PDF]
Food consumption involves inherently risky decisions with uncertain probabilities. This study examines how second-order ambiguity, or uncertainty over probabilities, affects food safety decisions.
Shogren, Jason F., Kivi, Paul A.
core
Asymptotic quantification of entanglement with a single copy. [PDF]
Lami L, Berta M, Regula B.
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A quantum probabilistic framework for reasoning coherence under contextual variability. [PDF]
Whittle-Walls G.
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What are we really measuring? The semantic confound in psychological scales and the case for theory-driven measurement. [PDF]
Liu X.
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