Axioms other general questions in probability

Results 11 to 20 of about 39,807 (135)

An objective Bayesian method for including parameter uncertainty in ensemble model output statistics

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Conventional model output statistics and ensemble model output statistics methods for calibrating ensemble forecasts lead to severe underestimation of the probabilities of ensemble extremes (in blue). This is because they ignore statistical parameter uncertainty.
Stephen Jewson +4 more
wiley +1 more source

Buchanan and the Social Contract: Coordination Failures and the Atrophy of Property Rights

Southern Economic Journal, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT James Buchanan advocated that societies should be based on a social contract. He rejected anarchy, seeing it as a “Hobbesian jungle” that calls for government intervention to maintain social order. He also opposed theories of spontaneous order. These views led to debates about the compatibility of Buchanan's works with classical liberalism and
Stefano Dughera, Alain Marciano
wiley +1 more source

The Biased Interaction Game: A System Theoretic Approach to the Emergence of Inequality, Hierarchy, and the Implications for the Likelihood of Cooperation

Systems Research and Behavioral Science, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT The emergence of cooperation in natural selection has been successfully studied using game theory and, despite the underlying selfish nature of the evolutionary process, a spectrum of plausible mechanisms have been proposed to determine the conditions under which cooperative behaviour is likely to occur.
Phil Mercy, Martin Neil
wiley +1 more source

The History and Ideas of George Herbert Mead's Pragmatism and Its Relevance for Operational Research and Systems Thinkers

Systems Research and Behavioral Science, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT George Herbert Mead is an oft forgotten or ignored American philosopher who was one of the originators of pragmatism. Today, he is recognised as a creative thinker who has teased out knotty problems that others in the field had not realised were problems. Understanding Mead's analysis has been made difficult because he died prematurely without
Richard Ormerod
wiley +1 more source

Toward Explainable Engineering Decisions: Pursuing a Descriptive Decision Theory at the Intersection of Analysis, Judgment, and Conviction

Systems Engineering, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Engineers design the technical systems that define and sustain our society. The decision‐making scenarios they face require both quantitative analyses and the consideration of qualitative factors, which are shaped by deeply held beliefs, values, and societal contexts. However, existing engineering decision‐making models, primarily derived from
Scott Ferguson, Kenneth “Mark” Bryden +1 more
wiley +1 more source

CISO: Species distribution modelling Conditioned on Incomplete Species Observations

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, EarlyView.
Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict species' geographic distributions, serving as critical tools for ecological research and conservation planning. Typically, SDMs relate species occurrences to environmental variables representing abiotic factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and soil properties.
Hager Radi Abdelwahed +6 more
wiley +1 more source

Power, costs, collective action, bargaining, and solidarity

American Journal of Political Science, EarlyView.
Abstract Some argue that the more costly it would be to exercise one's power over an issue, the less power one inherently has over it. I challenge this thesis with two major objections—one conceptual, the other practical or explanatory—contending that costs influence issue‐power not inherently but contingently in specifically strategic contexts.
Arash Abizadeh
wiley +1 more source

‘Clinging Together Against the Dark’: A Pragmatist Reading of Sustainability Conversations

Business Ethics, the Environment &Responsibility, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT In this paper, we present a typology of managers' interpretations of sustainability as ‘narrative fields’ derived from a qualitative multi‐site study and offer a Pragmatist reading of the results. Pragmatism is grounded in an ethic of meliorism, the belief in the possibility of gradually improving the world through human effort and ...
Barry A. Colbert, Elizabeth C. Kurucz
wiley +1 more source

When and why to give shorebirds a head start

Conservation Biology, EarlyView.
Abstract Headstarting is a translocation technique involving the hatching or rearing of wild eggs or young in captivity and the release of those individuals back to the wild at or before independence. It has been trialed as a conservation intervention for shorebirds over recent decades to improve the population trend of target populations by increasing
Lynda Donaldson +4 more
wiley +1 more source

Kant's Dialectic of Enlightenment

European Journal of Philosophy, EarlyView.
Abstract Kant's moral thought emphasizes both our ability to make adequate, immediate moral judgment, as well as our deep‐seated forms of self‐entrapment. Strikingly, these forms of self‐entrapment are not simply the result of reason being overpowered by forces external to it, but arise out of reason itself, as pathological versions of otherwise ...
Laurenz Ramsauer
wiley +1 more source