Results 1 to 10 of about 76 (66)
Base rate neglect and conservatism in probabilistic reasoning: Insights from eliciting full distributions [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2022 Bayesian statistics offers a normative description for how a person should combine their original beliefs (i.e., their priors) in light of new evidence (i.e., the likelihood).
Piers Douglas Lionel Howe +4 more
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Debiasing System 1: Training favours logical over stereotypical intuiting [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2022 Whereas people’s reasoning is often biased by intuitive stereotypical associations, recent debiasing studies suggest that performance can be boosted by short training interventions that stress the underlying problem logic.
Esther Boissin +3 more
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Conflict detection and base-rate extremity
Acta Psychologica, 2023 People tend to ignore the probabilistic rules cued by the base-rate information and rely on the heuristic intuition cued by the descriptive information to make “stereotypical” responses in base-rate problems.
Jianyong Yang +3 more
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The effects of base rate neglect on sequential belief updating and real-world beliefs.
PLoS Computational Biology, 2022 Base-rate neglect is a pervasive bias in judgment that is conceptualized as underweighting of prior information and can have serious consequences in real-world scenarios.
Brandon K Ashinoff +3 more
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Cognitive Research, 2022 Many studies have shown that using a computer-aided detection (CAD) system does not significantly improve diagnostic accuracy in radiology, possibly because radiologists fail to interpret the CAD results properly.
Fallon Branch +3 more
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Toward a more nuanced understanding of probability estimation biases
Frontiers in Psychology, 2023 In real life, we often have to make judgements under uncertainty. One such judgement task is estimating the probability of a given event based on uncertain evidence for the event, such as estimating the chances of actual fire when the fire alarm goes off.
Fallon Branch, Jay Hegdé
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Comparing fast thinking and slow thinking: The relative benefits of interventions, individual differences, and inferential rules [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2020 Research on judgment and decision making has suggested that the System 2 process of slow thinking can help people to improve their decision making by reducing well-established statistical decision biases (including base rate neglect, probability matching,
M. Asher Lawson +2 more
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Model-based fMRI reveals dissimilarity processes underlying base rate neglect
eLife, 2018 Extensive evidence suggests that people use base rate information inconsistently in decision making. A classic example is the inverse base rate effect (IBRE), whereby participants classify ambiguous stimuli sharing features of both common and rare ...
Sean R O'Bryan +3 more
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Single-Heuristic Reasoning: Is It Still Dual-Process?
Journal of Intelligence, 2023 Traditionally, paradigms used to study conflict in reasoning (and metacognition during reasoning) pit heuristic processes against analytical processes.
Pavle Valerjev, Marin Dujmović
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Theories of truth as assessment criteria in judgment and decision making [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2009 Hammond (1996) argued that much of the research in the field of judgment and decision making (JDM) can be categorized as focused on either coherence or correspondence (CandC) and that, in order to understand the findings of the field, one needs to ...
Philip T. Dunwoody
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