Using Bayes theorem to estimate positive and negative predictive values for continuously and ordinally scaled diagnostic tests. [PDF]
Int J Methods Psychiatr Res, 2021 Fischer F.
europepmc +1 more source
When in Doubt, Tax More Progressively? Uncertainty and Progressive Income Taxation
International Economic Review, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We study the optimal income tax problem under parameter uncertainty about household preferences and wage dynamics. We derive conditions characterizing how such uncertainty affects optimal tax policy. To quantify the effect, we estimate a life‐cycle model using US data and a Bayesian approach.
Minsu Chang, Chunzan Wu
wiley +1 more source
A Decision tree-based attribute weighting filter for naive Bayes [PDF]
, 2006 The naive Bayes classifier continues to be a popular learning algorithm for data mining applications due to its simplicity and linear run-time. Many enhancements to the basic algorithm have been proposed to help mitigate its primary weakness--the ...
Hall, Mark A.
core
The Distributional Effects of Economic Uncertainty*
International Economic Review, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We study the distributional implications of uncertainty shocks by developing a model that links macroeconomic aggregates to the US distribution of earnings and consumption. Our findings suggest that the fraction of low‐earning workers decreases initially, while the share of households reporting low consumption increases.
Florian Huber +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Corrigendum to "Bayes' theorem, COVID19, and screening tests" [The American Journal of Emergency Medicine, Volume 38, Issue 10, October 2020, Pages 2011-2013]. [PDF]
Am J Emerg Med, 2021 Chan GM.
europepmc +1 more source
A Horse Race of Machine‐Learning Methods to Predict Banking Crises
International Finance, EarlyView.ABSTRACT To examine if one machine‐learning model can consistently elucidate financial vulnerabilities, both over time and across levels of development, this paper applies 13 machine‐learning algorithms to evaluate comparative forecasting performance across several banking crises.
Emile du Plessis
wiley +1 more source
Bayes' theorem, COVID19, and screening tests. [PDF]
Am J Emerg Med, 2020 Chan GM.
europepmc +1 more source
Unconditional Variance Estimation Under Complex Surveys
International Statistical Review, EarlyView.Summary The unconditional framework treats the samples and the variables of interest as random variables. This is particularly suitable with analytic inference, when modelling survey data. We show that variance estimation does not involve finite population corrections and joint‐inclusion probabilities, even with large sampling fractions and under ...
Yves G. Berger
wiley +1 more source
Towards more reliable gambling cost estimates, a population-based study with register-linkage
BMC Public HealthBackground Although past research has shown a strong association between gambling participation and harms, relatively few studies have attempted to quantify the cost of these harms to society.
Tiina A. Latvala +5 more
doaj +1 more source
The Random Power Function for Tests Based on Pivotal Quantities
International Statistical Review, EarlyView.Summary In clinical trials planning, evaluation of the probability of success of an experiment is of central interest, for instance, in sample size determination. This assessment typically involves analyses of the power function of a test on a parameter of interest, such as a relevant treatment effect.
Fulvio De Santis +2 more
wiley +1 more source