Results 21 to 30 of about 470,247 (283)
Eliciting Second-Order Beliefs [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017 We study elicitation of subjective beliefs of an agent facing ambiguity (model uncertainty): the agent has a non-singleton set of (first-order) priors on an event and a second-order distribution on these priors. Such a two-stage decomposition of uncertainty and non-reduction of subjective compound lotteries resulting from non-neutrality to the second ...
Subir Bose, Arup Daripa
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A method to elicit beliefs as most likely intervals [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2015 We show how to elicit the beliefs of an expert in the form of a “most likely interval”, a set of future outcomes that are deemed more likely than any other outcome.
Karl H. Schlag, Joël J. van der Weele
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Assessing Multinomial Distributions with a Bayesian Approach
Mathematics, 2023 This paper introduces a unified Bayesian approach for testing various hypotheses related to multinomial distributions. The method calculates the Kullback–Leibler divergence between two specified multinomial distributions, followed by comparing the change
Luai Al-Labadi +3 more
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On eliciting beliefs in strategic games [PDF]
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2009 Submitted - sswp1271_-_revised.pdf Draft - sswp1271 ...
Palfrey, Thomas R., Wang, Stephanie W.
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Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models [PDF]
, 2010 The Bayes linear methodology allows decision makers to express their subjective beliefs and adjust these beliefs as observations are made. It is similar in spirit to probabilistic Bayesian approaches, but differs as it uses expectation as its primitive ...
Bedford, T.J. +2 more
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Eliciting beliefs by paying in chance [PDF]
Economic Theory Bulletin, 2013 This paper describes a general principle that can be used to elicit honest opinions, even if risk attitudes are unknown.
Alvaro Sandroni, Eran Shmaya
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Eliciting Multiple Prior Beliefs [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021 Abstract Despite the increasing importance of multiple priors in various domains of economics, choice-based incentive-compatible multiple-prior elicitation remains an open problem. This paper develops a solution, comprising a preference-based identification of a subject’s probability interval for an event, and a method for eliciting ...
Hill, Brian +2 more
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Sincere or motivated? Partisan bias in advice-taking
Judgment and Decision Making, 2023 Political divisions have become a central feature of modern life. Here, we ask whether these divisions affect advice-taking from co- and counter-partisans in a nonpolitical context.
Yunhao Zhang, David G. Rand
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Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race Among Truth Serums [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011 We pit non-incentivised introspection against five revealed preference mechanisms (‘truth serums’) in the elicitation of beliefs in a simple two-player game. We measure the additivity, the predictive power for own behaviour and the accuracy of each method.
Trautmann, S.T., van de Kuilen, G.
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Obvious Belief Elicitation [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019 zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
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