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TIPS, Break-Even Inflation, and Inflation Forecasts
This study investigates the efficiency of the U.S. market for inflation-indexed government bonds using a signal based on inflation forecasts and evaluating the effectiveness of several trading strategies to provide abnormal returns. The market for U.S.
Lehnert, T, Bardong, F
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New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2013Abstract This paper decomposes the break-even inflation rates derived from inflation-indexed bonds into inflation risk premia, liquidity risk premia, and inflation expectations. I estimate a common factor model with autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (ARCH) errors that extracts co-movements from twenty-two monthly and quarterly indicators ...
Zheng Zeng
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What Can Break-Even Inflation Rates Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area? [PDF]
We assess whether euro area inflation expectations, as measured by break-even inflation rates (BEIRs), have remained anchored during the financial crisis. Since autumn 2008, the volatility of BEIRs has increased considerably. We treat observed BEIRs as a sum of `genuine BEIRs' and additional `noise' components, the latter picking up influences related ...
Lemke, Wolfgang, Strohsal, Till
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Chapter 2 The CPI Linkage, the Concept of Break-even Inflation and the Deflation Floor
2023exaly +2 more sources
Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate
2004According to the Fisher hypothesis, the gap between Canadian nominal and Real Return Bond yields (or break-even inflation rate) should be a good measure of inflation expectations. The authors find that this measure was higher, on average, and more variable than survey measures of inflation expectations between 1992 and 2003.
Christensen, Ian +2 more
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(The Effect of Oil Prices on Break-Even Inflation Rates of the United States)
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017Jinyong Kim +2 more
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