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Conflict Probability Estimations Based on Geometrical and Bayesian Approaches
2007 IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference, 2007In this paper, we present two approaches to calculate the probability of conflict between two aircrafts in the airspace. The problem is concerned with a more general problem, that is minimizing the delay caused by airspace congestion. The long-term objective of this work is to reduce the number of potential en-route conflicts through a better ...
Alfred Bashllari +3 more
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Automated Conflict Resolution Utilizing Probability Collectives Optimizer
IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C (Applications and Reviews), 2011Rising manned air traffic and deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles in complex operations requires integration of innovative and autonomous conflict detection and resolution methods. In this paper, the task of conflict detection and resolution is defined as an optimization problem searching for a heading control for cooperating airplanes using ...
David Sislák +3 more
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Algorithms for tactical conflict resolution and strategic conflict probability reduction
1st AIAA, Aircraft, Technology Integration, and Operations Forum, 2001Numerical algorithms are presented for de- termining the dynamic speed and heading maneu- vers required to resolve air traffic conflicts in the horizontal plane. Speed changes are modeled as pe- riods of constant along-track acceleration or decel- eration, and heading changes are modeled as steady turns of constant rate and radius.
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Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight
1996The safety and efficiency of free flight will benefit from automated conflict prediction and resolution advisories. Conflict prediction is based on trajectory prediction and is less certain the farther in advance the prediction, however. An estimate is therefore needed of the probability that a conflict will occur, given a pair of predicted ...
Paielli, Russell A., Erzberger, Heinz
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A simplified approach to conflict probability estimation
20th DASC. 20th Digital Avionics Systems Conference (Cat. No.01CH37219), 2002Describes a relatively straightforward method of estimating the probability of loss of separation between two aircraft at some future time, that is, the probability that they will enter into conflict. Initially the method is developed for encounters in which the planned or predicted speeds of both aircraft are constant during the prediction interval ...
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Evaluation of conflict detection based on probability
2018 Integrated Communications, Navigation, Surveillance Conference (ICNS), 2018▸Improving TP error significantly reduces number of detected conflicts, increases precision of detection and allows greater look-ahead ▸Conflict detection decision threshold needs to be defined carefully to minimize false negatives and false positives ▸Earlier conflict resolution improves trajectories and can save ...
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A methodology for estimating the probability of potential secondary conflicts
2013 IEEE/AIAA 32nd Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), 2013In a distributed separation assurance system, each aircraft is equipped with its own conflict detection and resolution capability. An aircraft that is resolving an initial primary conflict has complete state information of all nearby aircraft, so is able to choose a resolution trajectory that is conflict-free from all other aircraft.
John Shortle, Akshay Belle
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Effect of Wind Correlation on Aircraft Conflict Probability
Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, 2007A study which examines the effect of wind correlation on aircraft conflict probability estimation is presented. We describe the correlation structure of the difference between the actual wind and the meteorological wind forecasts and discuss how it can be implemented in simulation.
Chaloulos, Georgios, Lygeros, John
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Conflict types and probabilities in stochastic TM-programs
2014 4th IEEE International Conference on Information Science and Technology, 2014Transactional Memory (TM) is an attractive concurrency control mechanism that should deliver much better performance than locks in case when transaction conflicts are rare. But, if the probability of conflicts is high, TM program performance may be very poor. Therefore, when engineering mission critical systems, we need to be able to calculate conflict
Miroslav Popovic, Ilija Basicevic
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A Geometrical Approach to Conflict Probability Estimation
Air Traffic Control Quarterly, 2002A method of estimating conflict probability is described. Initially the method is presented considering only along-track errors but subsequently cross-track errors are included. Graphs of conflict probability illustrate limits on the levels of performance that may be attained in medium-term conflict detection and resolution (in the absence of measures ...
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