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Probability judgment in hierarchical learning: a conflict between predictiveness and coherence
Cognition, 2002Why are people's judgments incoherent under probability formats? Research in an associative learning paradigm suggests that after structured learning participants give judgments based on predictiveness rather than normative probability. This is because people's learning mechanisms attune to statistical contingencies in the environment, and they use ...
David A, Lagnado, David R, Shanks
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Rivalry, Instability, and the Probability of International Conflict
Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2011This article addresses the effect of political instability and domestic conflict on the probability of militarized interstate disputes. Existing research on the subject has produced inconsistent findings. I hypothesize that the effect of political instability on international disputes is conditional on states’ involvement in civil conflict.
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Mathematical Models for Air Traffic Conflict and Collision Probability Estimation
IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2019Increasing traffic demands and technological developments provide novel design opportunities for future air traffic management (ATM). In order to evaluate current air traffic operations and future designs, over the past decades, several mathematical models have been proposed for air traffic conflict and collision probability estimation.
Mihaela Mitici, Henk A. P. Blom
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Automated Conflict Resolution of Lane Change Utilizing Probability Collectives
2019 19th International Conference on Advanced Robotics (ICAR), 2019Lane change is one of the most common maneuvers in traffic. It is a lateral movement which can affect the trajectory of other vehicles, with the possibility of collision. Although the field of autonomous vehicles has been growing and the repertoire of methods used for autonomous navigation is extensive, lane-changing still one of the causes of flow ...
Tiago C. dos Santos, Denis F. Wolf
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Improved Monte Carlo Sampling for Conflict Probability Estimation
51st AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference<BR> 18th AIAA/ASME/AHS Adaptive Structures Conference<BR> 12th, 2010Probabilistic alerting systems for airborne collision avoidance often depend upon accurate estimates of the probability of con ict. Analytical, numerical approximation, and Monte Carlo methods have been applied to con ict probability estimation. The advantage of a Monte Carlo approach is the greater exibility a orded in modeling the stochastic behavior
James Chryssanthacopoulos +2 more
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Conflict Probability Estimation Generalized to Non-Level Flight
Air Traffic Control Quarterly, 1999A method known as conflict probability estimation (CPE) is presented to estimate the probability of conflict for pairs of aircraft with uncertain predicted trajectories.
Russell A. Paielli, Heinz Erzberger
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The Integration of Conflict Probability and Severity for the Safety Assessment of Intersections
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 2014The use of traffic crash data-based methodologies for safety evaluation is inadequate due to the shortcomings such as unavailability and low quality of historical crash data. Other than crash data-based analysis, the use of empirical vehicle maneuvers and/or the development of micro-simulation models in conjunction with surrogate safety measures has ...
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Sources of Conflict Between Work and Family Roles
Academy of Management Review, 1985Jeffrey H Greenhaus, Nicholas J Beutell
exaly
Estimation of conflict probability between aircraft
2016J. Morio, D. Jacquemart, M. Balesdent
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