Results 71 to 80 of about 1,772 (264)

‘Super-Parameterization’ – a Better Way to Simulate Regional Extreme Precipitation?

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2012
Extreme precipitation is generally underestimated by current climate models relative to observations of present-day rainfall distributions. Possible causes of this systematic error include the convective parameterization in these models that have been ...
Michael F. Wehner, William D. Collins, Daniele Rosa, Fuyu Li   +3 more
doaj  

Epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty quantification in weather and climate models

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties over time on weather and climate time‐scales, estimated through ensembles that sample aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty using Bayesian neural networks for parameterisations in the Lorenz 1996 model. The spread shows the 16th and 84th percentiles.
Laura A. Mansfield, Hannah M. Christensen   +1 more
wiley   +1 more source

Ensemble reliability and the signal‐to‐noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We derive a general expression for the ratio of predictable components (RPC) in terms of correlation, spread–error ratio, and total variance ratio. Physical constraints on the admissible solutions (i.e., real‐valued and non‐negative variances) provide a mechanism to identify statistically paradoxical sample combinations of reliability and correlation ...
Christopher D. Roberts, Frederic Vitart
wiley   +1 more source

The Impact of Model Uncertainties on Analyzed Data in a Global Data Assimilation System

Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 2011
The impact of model uncertainties on analyzed data is investigated using a global data assimilation system. This issue is explored in a 3D-Var system based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Department of Energy (DOE) system ...
Song-You Hong, Hyun Mee Kim, Jung-Eun Kim, Seung-On Hwang, Hoon Park   +4 more
doaj   +1 more source

Numerical simulation and physical understanding of a locally initiated sea fog event over the eastern Yellow Sea with a transition of air–sea temperature difference

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Unexpected sea fog in the west coast of South Korea had a huge impact on the transportations in the Seoul–Incheon metropolitan area. We reproduced successfully the formation and evolution of a sea event with a transition of air–sea temperature difference using the Weather Research and Forecasting model.
Jeonghoe Kim, Jung‐Hoon Kim, Clive E. Dorman, Harindra J. S. Fernando   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Enhanced Convective Microphysics Scheme and Its Impacts on Mean Climate in E3SM

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
To improve the representation of microphysical processes in convective clouds and their interaction with aerosol and stratiform clouds, a two‐moment convective microphysics parameterization (CMP) scheme developed by Song and Zhang (2011, https://doi.org ...
Xiaoliang Song, Guang J. Zhang, Chris Terai, Shaocheng Xie   +3 more
doaj   +1 more source

Scale dependence of the marine atmospheric boundary‐layer response to ocean surface‐temperature variability in the EUREC4$$ {\mathrm{EUREC}}^4 $$A region

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
With a minimal physics model and a high‐resolution fully 3D simulation, we demonstrate that the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) response to sea‐surface temperature (SST) variability displays a dependence on the horizontal scales of motion.
Alessandro Storer, Matteo Borgnino, Claudia Pasquero, Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

An updated parameterization of the unstable atmospheric surface layer in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system [PDF]

Geoscientific Model Development
The accurate parameterization of atmospheric surface layer processes is crucial for weather forecasts using numerical weather prediction models. Here, an attempt has been made to improve the surface layer parameterization in the Weather Research and ...
P. Namdev, M. Sharan, P. Srivastava, S. K. Mishra   +3 more
doaj   +1 more source

EnKF and expectation‐maximization based parameter estimation of a convective gravity‐wave parameterization using Strateole 2 constant‐level balloon data

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
An offline methodology is applied to estimate parameters of a convective gravity‐wave scheme using momentum flux (MF) observations from constant‐level balloons (left panels: pdfs of east and west MFs in green from observations and black from EnKF). The approach integrates an ensemble Kalman filter with an expectation‐maximization algorithm and permits ...
F. Lott, P. Tandeo, M. Pulido, D. Bardet
wiley   +1 more source

Aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation during the 1997 smoke episode in Indonesia [PDF]

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2009
In 1997/1998 a severe smoke episode due to extensive biomass burning, especially of peat, was observed over Indonesia. September 1997 was the month with the highest aerosol burden.
H.-F. Graf, J. Yang, T. M. Wagner
doaj