Econometric assessment of seasonal volatility and predictive uncertainty in Albania's hydropower-dependent electricity market. [PDF]
Sci RepArapi L +7 more
europepmc +1 more source
Robust Estimation and Inference for Time‐Varying Unconditional Volatility
Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We derive a general and robust estimator of a large class of parametric specifications of time‐varying unconditional volatility of financial returns, both univariate and multivariate, and establish the Consistency and Asymptotic Normality (CAN) of the estimator.
Adam Lee +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Shifts in seasonal timing of respiratory diseases and causes of death following a natural pandemic event. [PDF]
PLOS Glob Public HealthSieber M, Traulsen A.
europepmc +1 more source
Sequential Outlier Detection in Nonstationary Time Series
Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.ABSTRACT A novel method for sequential outlier detection in nonstationary time series is proposed. The method tests the null hypothesis of “no outlier” at each time point, addressing the multiple testing problem by bounding the error probability of successive tests, using extreme‐value theory. The asymptotic properties of the test statistic are studied
Florian Heinrichs +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Extreme Salinity Change Governs Microbial Community Assembly and Interactions. [PDF]
Environ Microbiol RepKeneally C +7 more
europepmc +1 more source
The Accuracy Smoothness Dilemma in Prediction: A Novel Multivariate M‐SSA Forecast Approach
Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Forecasting presents a complex estimation challenge, as it involves balancing multiple, often conflicting, priorities and objectives. Conventional forecast optimization methods typically emphasize a single metric, such as minimizing the mean squared error (MSE), which may neglect other crucial aspects of predictive performance. To address this
Marc Wildi
wiley +1 more source
Optimal Vaccination for Contagious Diseases with Seasonal Transmission. [PDF]
Bull Math BiolGavish N, Katriel G.
europepmc +1 more source
Moving Aggregate Modified Autoregressive Copula‐Based Time Series Models (MAGMAR‐Copulas)
Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Copula‐based time series models can model univariate and stationary time series in a flexible way by decomposing the joint distribution of consecutive observations into a copula and the stationary distribution. Implicitly, this approach assumes a finite Markov order. In reality, a time series may not follow the Markov property.
Sven Pappert
wiley +1 more source
Longitudinal impact of cloud-based medical imaging: an analysis using ARIMA modeling and Monte Carlo simulation. [PDF]
Front Public HealthZhang H, Hu Y, Yu F, Yang J.
europepmc +1 more source
Measure‐valued processes for energy markets
Mathematical Finance, Volume 35, Issue 2, Page 520-566, April 2025.Abstract We introduce a framework that allows to employ (non‐negative) measure‐valued processes for energy market modeling, in particular for electricity and gas futures. Interpreting the process' spatial structure as time to maturity, we show how the Heath–Jarrow–Morton approach can be translated to this framework, thus guaranteeing arbitrage free ...
Christa Cuchiero +3 more
wiley +1 more source