Results 51 to 60 of about 3,807 (197)
IET Intelligent Transport Systems, Volume 19, Issue 1, January/December 2025.This study proposes an analytical framework to characterize the response of urban travel to rainfall events. The study uses cell phone signalling‐based mobility big data before, during, and after the perturbations, with the 2021 Zhengzhou floods as a case study.
Qian Ye +4 more
wiley +1 more source
The Ellsberg Paradox and Risk Aversion: An Anticipated Utility Approach [PDF]
International Economic Review, 1987 The paper describes a decision process under which it is rational to prefer a lottery with known probabilities to a similar ambiguous lottery where the decision maker does not know the exact values of the probabilities (the ``Ellsberg paradox''). This is done by modeling ambiguous lotteries as two-stage lotteries, by assuming the independence axiom ...
openaire +2 more sources
Quantitative Economics, Volume 16, Issue 1, Page 329-365, January 2025.Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two forms of biases from choices.
Ilke Aydogan +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Expected balanced uncertain utility
Theoretical Economics, Volume 20, Issue 1, Page 1-25, January 2025.We introduce and analyze expected balanced uncertain utility (EBUU) theory. A prior and a balanced outcome‐set utility characterize an EBUU decision maker. Conditional on a reference or “balancing value,” the latter assigns a utility to each outcome‐set.
Simon Grant, Berend Roorda, Jingni Yang
wiley +1 more source
Econometrica, Volume 92, Issue 6, Page 1967-1992, November 2024.We explore the deliberate infusion of ambiguity into the design of contracts. We show that when the agent is ambiguity‐averse and hence chooses an action that maximizes their minimum utility, the principal can strictly gain from using an ambiguous contract, and this gain can be arbitrarily high.
Paul Dütting +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Humanities & Social Sciences CommunicationsThis paper proposes that there is a set of behavioral deviations from standard rational choices that differs from the rest of the deviations. This set is characterized by anxiety-based choices that are truly non-rational, whereas the rest consists of ...
Elias L. Khalil
doaj +1 more source
Chance, probability, and uncertainty at the edge of human reasoning: What is Knightian uncertainty?
Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal, Volume 18, Issue 3, Page 451-474, September 2024.Abstract Research Summary For more than a century, Frank Knight's Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit has significantly influenced entrepreneurship theory development by exploring the nature of uncertainty and the epistemic limits of entrepreneurial action.
David M. Townsend +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Source Dependence in Effort Provision
International Economic Review, Volume 65, Issue 3, Page 1499-1517, August 2024.Abstract We examine source dependence in the setting of effort provision. Our first experiment elicits preference over uncertain piece rate schemes to perform a real‐effort task. Our second experiment elicits effort after receiving an uncertain gift. We vary the probability of winning and the familiarity of natural sources of uncertainty.
Yiting Chen, Songfa Zhong
wiley +1 more source
Market or clan: A comparative study of risk sharing institutional evolution in China and Europe
International Studies of Economics, Volume 19, Issue 2, Page 293-327, June 2024.Abstract In the psychological and sociological framework of risk, we establish a static and dynamic equilibrium model for risk‐sharing institutional evolution. Particularly, through a comparative study of marine insurance development in China and Europe, we address a wide set of research questions concerning why China and Europe relied on different ...
Wenge Zhu
wiley +1 more source
Objective Imprecise Probabilistic Information, Second Order Beliefs and Ambiguity Aversion: an Axiomatization [PDF]
We axiomatize a model of decision under objective ambiguity or imprecise risk. The decision maker forms a subjective (non necessarily additive) belief aboutthe likelihood of probability distributions and computes the average expected utility of a given ...
Raphaël Giraud
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