Results 41 to 50 of about 196 (135)

Asymmetric Priors in Agency Under Maximum‐Entropy

The Manchester School, Volume 94, Issue 1, Page 116-124, January 2026.
ABSTRACT This article analyzes the agency relationship in a setting where principal and agent have asymmetric priors on output. These differing priors stem from distinct information sets regarding the (unknown) output distribution, being assumed that both principal and agent rely on the maximum‐entropy principle to estimate the respective distributions.
Óscar Gutiérrez
wiley   +1 more source

Uncertainty in Household Behavior Drives Large Variation in the Size of the Levee Effect

Journal of Flood Risk Management, Volume 18, Issue 4, December 2025.
ABSTRACT Coastal cities face increasing flood hazards due to climate change. Physical infrastructures, such as levees, are commonly used to reduce flood hazards. To effectively manage flood risks, it is important to understand the degree to which physical infrastructures change both hazard and exposure.
Parin Bhaduri, Adam B. Pollack, James Yoon, Pranab K. Roy Chowdhury, Heng Wan, David Judi, Brent Daniel, Vivek Srikrishnan   +7 more
wiley   +1 more source

Anticomonotonicity for preference axioms: The natural counterpart to comonotonicity

Theoretical Economics, Volume 20, Issue 3, Page 831-855, July 2025.
Comonotonicity (same variation) of random variables minimizes hedging possibilities and has been widely used, e.g., in Gilboa and Schmeidler's ambiguity models. This paper investigates anticomonotonicity (opposite variation (AC)), the natural counterpart to comonotonicity. It minimizes leveraging rather than hedging possibilities.
Giulio Principi, Peter P. Wakker, Ruodu Wang   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

How can we apply decision‐making theories to wild animal behavior? Predictions arising from dual process theory and Bayesian decision theory

American Journal of Primatology, Volume 87, Issue 1, January 2025.
The theoretical amount of mental effort an animal should exert depending on how routine a situation is, how accurately a cue or signal predicts an outcome, or how computationally complex a problem is. Abstract Our understanding of decision‐making processes and cognitive biases is ever increasing, thanks to an accumulation of testable models and a large
Julie A. Teichroeb, Eve A. Smeltzer, Virendra Mathur, Karyn A. Anderson, Erica J. Fowler, Frances V. Adams, Eric N. Vasey, Ludmila Tamara Kumpan, Samantha M. Stead, T. Jean M. Arseneau‐Robar   +9 more
wiley   +1 more source

Understanding Urban Mobility Responses to Extreme Precipitation Events: A Case Study of Zhengzhou, China

IET Intelligent Transport Systems, Volume 19, Issue 1, January/December 2025.
This study proposes an analytical framework to characterize the response of urban travel to rainfall events. The study uses cell phone signalling‐based mobility big data before, during, and after the perturbations, with the 2021 Zhengzhou floods as a case study.
Qian Ye, Yulin Ma, Shucai Xu, Miguel Ángel Sotelo, Zhixiong Li   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices

Quantitative Economics, Volume 16, Issue 1, Page 329-365, January 2025.
Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two forms of biases from choices.
Ilke Aydogan, Aurélien Baillon, Emmanuel Kemel, Chen Li   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Expected balanced uncertain utility

Theoretical Economics, Volume 20, Issue 1, Page 1-25, January 2025.
We introduce and analyze expected balanced uncertain utility (EBUU) theory. A prior and a balanced outcome‐set utility characterize an EBUU decision maker. Conditional on a reference or “balancing value,” the latter assigns a utility to each outcome‐set.
Simon Grant, Berend Roorda, Jingni Yang
wiley   +1 more source

Ambiguous Contracts

Econometrica, Volume 92, Issue 6, Page 1967-1992, November 2024.
We explore the deliberate infusion of ambiguity into the design of contracts. We show that when the agent is ambiguity‐averse and hence chooses an action that maximizes their minimum utility, the principal can strictly gain from using an ambiguous contract, and this gain can be arbitrarily high.
Paul Dütting, Michal Feldman, Daniel Peretz, Larry Samuelson   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Anxiety and rationality: Allais paradox, procrastination, Keynesian expectations, and other anxiety-based deviations from rationality

Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
This paper proposes that there is a set of behavioral deviations from standard rational choices that differs from the rest of the deviations. This set is characterized by anxiety-based choices that are truly non-rational, whereas the rest consists of ...
Elias L. Khalil
doaj   +1 more source

Chance, probability, and uncertainty at the edge of human reasoning: What is Knightian uncertainty?

Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal, Volume 18, Issue 3, Page 451-474, September 2024.
Abstract Research Summary For more than a century, Frank Knight's Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit has significantly influenced entrepreneurship theory development by exploring the nature of uncertainty and the epistemic limits of entrepreneurial action.
David M. Townsend, Richard A. Hunt, Judy Rady   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source