Results 21 to 30 of about 196 (135)
A Quantum Model for the Ellsberg and Machina Paradoxes [PDF]
, 2012 The Ellsberg and Machina paradoxes reveal that expected utility theory is problematical when real subjects take decisions under uncertainty. Suitable generalizations of expected utility exist which attempt to solve the Ellsberg paradox, but none of them provides a satisfactory solution of the Machina paradox.
Diederik Aerts +2 more
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Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 2018 Ellsberg paradox in decision theory posits that people will inevitably choose a known probability of winning over an unknown probability of winning even if the known probability is low [1].
Song-Ju Kim, Taiki Takahashi
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On the Ellsberg and Machina paradoxes
Theory and Decision, 2023 AbstractThis paper constructs a simple model of decision-making that accounts for the paradoxes of Ellsberg and Machina. It does so by representing decision makers’ beliefs on the vector space $${\mathbb{R}}\times {\mathbb{R}}$$ R × R and ...
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An Ellsberg paradox for ambiguity aversion
, 2022 Version of ...
Kuzmics, Christoph +2 more
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Quantum Decision Theory and the Ellsberg Paradox [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018 We formulate a simple quantum decision model of the Ellsberg paradox. We report the results of an experiment we performed to test the matching probabilities predicted by this model using an incentive compatible method. We find that the theoretical predictions of the model are in conformity with our experimental results.
al-Nowaihi, Ali +2 more
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Modeling the Ellsberg Paradox by Argument Strength
CoRR, 2017 We present a formal measure of argument strength, which combines the ideas that conclusions of strong arguments are (i) highly probable and (ii) their uncertainty is relatively precise. Likewise, arguments are weak when their conclusion probability is low or when it is highly imprecise.
Pfeifer, Niki, Pankka, Hanna
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Realistic utility versus game utility: a proposal for dealing with the spread of uncertain prospects
Statistica, 2013 The author develops the properties and implications of a proposal, concerning a summary statistic of the random prospect of utilities. Following a suggestion of Allais, such a statistic is increasing with expected utility, and decreasing – for most ...
Benito Vittorio Frosini
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Affective Decision Making and the Ellsberg Paradox [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2008 Affective decision-making is a strategic model of choice under risk and uncertainty where we posit two cognitive processes -- the "rational" and the "emoitonal" process. Observed choice is the result of equilibirum in this intrapersonal game. As an example, we present applications of affective decision-making in insurance markets, where the risk ...
Anat Bracha, Donald Brown
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Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts [PDF]
Expert Journal of Economics, 2014 A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article.
Alexander HARIN
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A Two-Ball Ellsberg Paradox: An Experiment
, 2022 We conduct an incentivized experiment on a nationally representative US sample \\ (N=708) to test whether people prefer to avoid ambiguity even when it means choosing dominated options. In contrast to the literature, we find that 55\% of subjects prefer a risky act to an ambiguous act that always provides a larger probability of winning.
Jabarian, Brian, Lazarus, Simon
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