Results 31 to 40 of about 506 (164)
On the Ellsberg and Machina paradoxes
Theory and Decision, 2023 AbstractThis paper constructs a simple model of decision-making that accounts for the paradoxes of Ellsberg and Machina. It does so by representing decision makers’ beliefs on the vector space $${\mathbb{R}}\times {\mathbb{R}}$$ R × R and ...
openaire +1 more source
Leonard Savage, the Ellsberg Paradox and the Debate on Subjective Probabilities: Evidence from the Archives [PDF]
, 2021 This paper explores archival material concerning the reception of Leonard J. Savage’s foundational work of rational choice theory in its subjective-Bayesian form. The focus is on the criticism raised in the early 1960s by Daniel Ellsberg, William Fellner
Zappia, Carlo
core +1 more source
Realistic utility versus game utility: a proposal for dealing with the spread of uncertain prospects
Statistica, 2013 The author develops the properties and implications of a proposal, concerning a summary statistic of the random prospect of utilities. Following a suggestion of Allais, such a statistic is increasing with expected utility, and decreasing – for most ...
Benito Vittorio Frosini
doaj +1 more source
Partially Unforeseen Events. Corrections and Correcting Formulae for Forecasts [PDF]
Expert Journal of Economics, 2014 A hypothesis of uncertain future was created and first applied in the field of utility and prospect theories. An extension of application of the hypothesis to the field of forecasting is considered in the article.
Alexander HARIN
doaj
A Two-Ball Ellsberg Paradox: An Experiment
, 2022 We conduct an incentivized experiment on a nationally representative US sample \\ (N=708) to test whether people prefer to avoid ambiguity even when it means choosing dominated options. In contrast to the literature, we find that 55\% of subjects prefer a risky act to an ambiguous act that always provides a larger probability of winning.
Jabarian, Brian, Lazarus, Simon
openaire +2 more sources
Participants understood the Ellsberg Paradox after AC and NC interventions.
, 2020 Mean and standard deviation of scores of understanding the Ellsberg Paradox, separately for participants from the three groups: Active Calculation, Non-active Calculation, and control. After participants finished the decision making task, they were asked
Laurie R. Santos (8532054) +4 more
core +1 more source
Allais–Ellsberg Convergent Markov–Network Game
ProceedingsBehavioral deviations from subjective expected utility theory, most famously captured by the Allais paradox and the Ellsberg paradox, have inspired extensive theoretical and experimental research into risk and ambiguity preferences.
Adil Ahmad Mughal
doaj +1 more source
Welfare consequences of the compound risks of index insurance
Journal of Risk and Insurance, EarlyView.Abstract Index insurance is an attractive variant on the standard insurance contract that allows the determination of a loss event to be defined by one or more thresholds on an index that is positively correlated with actual losses. Index insurance also comes with a compound risk, basis risk.
Glenn Harrison +4 more
wiley +1 more source
ELLSBERG’S PARADOX AND THE VALUE OF CHANCES [PDF]
Economics and Philosophy, 2015 Abstract:What value should we put on our chances of obtaining a good? This paper argues that, contrary to the widely accepted theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern, the value of a chance of some good G may be a non-linear function of the value of G.
openaire +1 more source
Mathematical Finance, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We study a dynamic portfolio optimization problem under the mean–variance–variance (M‐V‐V) criterion proposed by Maccheroni et al. It is an analogue of the Arrow–Pratt approximation to the well‐known smooth ambiguity model. Under the standard Black–Scholes framework, we derive fully explicit equilibrium investment strategies in which a DM's ...
David Landriault, Bin Li, Yuanyuan Zhang
wiley +1 more source