Results 31 to 40 of about 196 (135)

Allais–Ellsberg Convergent Markov–Network Game

Proceedings
Behavioral deviations from subjective expected utility theory, most famously captured by the Allais paradox and the Ellsberg paradox, have inspired extensive theoretical and experimental research into risk and ambiguity preferences.
Adil Ahmad Mughal
doaj   +1 more source

Welfare consequences of the compound risks of index insurance

Journal of Risk and Insurance, EarlyView.
Abstract Index insurance is an attractive variant on the standard insurance contract that allows the determination of a loss event to be defined by one or more thresholds on an index that is positively correlated with actual losses. Index insurance also comes with a compound risk, basis risk.
Glenn Harrison, Jimmy Martí­nez‐Correa, Karlijn Morsink, Jia Min Ng, J. Todd Swarthout   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

ELLSBERG’S PARADOX AND THE VALUE OF CHANCES [PDF]

Economics and Philosophy, 2015
Abstract:What value should we put on our chances of obtaining a good? This paper argues that, contrary to the widely accepted theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern, the value of a chance of some good G may be a non-linear function of the value of G.
openaire   +1 more source

Real and Apparent Deviations From Rational Choice

Kyklos, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper offers a taxonomy of real and apparent deviations from rationality. The taxonomy is based on three axes of divides—whereas the axes are successive refinements. The outermost‐axis divide delineates “anxiety‐based choices” from “anxiety‐free choices.” Anxiety‐based choices are real deviations such as the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes ...
Elias L. Khalil
wiley   +1 more source

Robust Mean–Variance Portfolio Optimization: Mean–Variance–Variance Criterion Versus Mean–Variance–Standard Deviation Criterion

Mathematical Finance, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study a dynamic portfolio optimization problem under the mean–variance–variance (M‐V‐V) criterion proposed by Maccheroni et al. It is an analogue of the Arrow–Pratt approximation to the well‐known smooth ambiguity model. Under the standard Black–Scholes framework, we derive fully explicit equilibrium investment strategies in which a DM's ...
David Landriault, Bin Li, Yuanyuan Zhang
wiley   +1 more source

Taking Risks, With and Without Probabilities

Noûs, Volume 60, Issue 3, Page 576-592, September 2026.
ABSTRACT Some hold that expected utility is too restrictive in the way it handles risk. Risk‐weighted expected utility is an alternative that allows decision‐makers to have a range of attitudes toward probabilistic risk. It holds that any attitude within this range is instrumentally rational, since these attitudes represent different, equally good ...
Lara Buchak
wiley   +1 more source

Modified Standard Risk Assessment Based on Optimal Capacity Investment Decisions and Portfolio Optimization (Infrastructure Speculation and New Financial Instrument) [PDF]

تحقیقات مالی اسلامی (پیوسته), 2013
In order to use an Islamic financial instrument, this paper intends to measure and evaluate negative and positive deviations from target rate of return in investment opportunity evaluation,that leads to presenting an upside potential- adjusted risk ...
Fereidoun Rahnamay Roudposhti, Yavar Mirabasi   +1 more
doaj  

What if the expected is not the most likely outcome? Four examples giving pause for thought and reconsideration

Economica, Volume 93, Issue 371, Page 839-862, July 2026.
Abstract The foundational nature of expectations‐based theories and the prominence of symmetric unimodal stochastic assumptions in economic research render the expected outcome the go to locational focus throughout its many realms. When symmetric unimodality prevails, expected and most likely outcomes are identical; however, when it does not, they are ...
Gordon Anderson
wiley   +1 more source

Models in Decision‐Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Journal of Economic Surveys, Volume 40, Issue 1, Page 304-320, February 2026.
ABSTRACT This paper systematically compares dominant frameworks for modeling decision‐making under risk and uncertainty, evaluating their theoretical trade‐offs and practical relevance for economic research. We establish key criteria for model selection—including predictive accuracy, descriptive realism, computational tractability, and ecological ...
Martin Höppner
wiley   +1 more source

On the Ellsberg paradox

, 2015
This paper proposes a model of expected utility maximization which accounts for the Ellsberg paradox and for Machina’s extension of it. In the model, decision makers use a commutative ring in which the real numbers are embedded as a subring, and they do so in order to decompose their beliefs into ‘ambiguous’ or ‘unambiguous’ parts – with unambiguous ...
openaire   +2 more sources