Results 51 to 60 of about 506 (164)

How can we apply decision‐making theories to wild animal behavior? Predictions arising from dual process theory and Bayesian decision theory

American Journal of Primatology, Volume 87, Issue 1, January 2025.
The theoretical amount of mental effort an animal should exert depending on how routine a situation is, how accurately a cue or signal predicts an outcome, or how computationally complex a problem is. Abstract Our understanding of decision‐making processes and cognitive biases is ever increasing, thanks to an accumulation of testable models and a large
Julie A. Teichroeb, Eve A. Smeltzer, Virendra Mathur, Karyn A. Anderson, Erica J. Fowler, Frances V. Adams, Eric N. Vasey, Ludmila Tamara Kumpan, Samantha M. Stead, T. Jean M. Arseneau‐Robar   +9 more
wiley   +1 more source

Understanding Urban Mobility Responses to Extreme Precipitation Events: A Case Study of Zhengzhou, China

IET Intelligent Transport Systems, Volume 19, Issue 1, January/December 2025.
This study proposes an analytical framework to characterize the response of urban travel to rainfall events. The study uses cell phone signalling‐based mobility big data before, during, and after the perturbations, with the 2021 Zhengzhou floods as a case study.
Qian Ye, Yulin Ma, Shucai Xu, Miguel Ángel Sotelo, Zhixiong Li   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices

Quantitative Economics, Volume 16, Issue 1, Page 329-365, January 2025.
Belief‐updating biases hinder the correction of inaccurate beliefs and lead to suboptimal decisions. We complement Rabin and Schrag's (1999) portable extension of the Bayesian model by including conservatism in addition to confirmatory bias. Additionally, we show how to identify these two forms of biases from choices.
Ilke Aydogan, Aurélien Baillon, Emmanuel Kemel, Chen Li   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Descriptive statistics of ambiguity and risk attitudes, and score of understanding the Ellsberg Paradox for the three intervention groups, Mean (Standard deviation).

, 2020
Descriptive statistics of ambiguity and risk attitudes, and score of understanding the Ellsberg Paradox for the three intervention groups, Mean (Standard deviation).
Laurie R. Santos (8532054), Ifat Levy (714877), Ellen Furlong (8532048), Sean Gao (8532051), Ruonan Jia (4731072)   +4 more
core   +1 more source

Expected balanced uncertain utility

Theoretical Economics, Volume 20, Issue 1, Page 1-25, January 2025.
We introduce and analyze expected balanced uncertain utility (EBUU) theory. A prior and a balanced outcome‐set utility characterize an EBUU decision maker. Conditional on a reference or “balancing value,” the latter assigns a utility to each outcome‐set.
Simon Grant, Berend Roorda, Jingni Yang
wiley   +1 more source

Ambiguous Contracts

Econometrica, Volume 92, Issue 6, Page 1967-1992, November 2024.
We explore the deliberate infusion of ambiguity into the design of contracts. We show that when the agent is ambiguity‐averse and hence chooses an action that maximizes their minimum utility, the principal can strictly gain from using an ambiguous contract, and this gain can be arbitrarily high.
Paul Dütting, Michal Feldman, Daniel Peretz, Larry Samuelson   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Chance, probability, and uncertainty at the edge of human reasoning: What is Knightian uncertainty?

Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal, Volume 18, Issue 3, Page 451-474, September 2024.
Abstract Research Summary For more than a century, Frank Knight's Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit has significantly influenced entrepreneurship theory development by exploring the nature of uncertainty and the epistemic limits of entrepreneurial action.
David M. Townsend, Richard A. Hunt, Judy Rady   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Anxiety and rationality: Allais paradox, procrastination, Keynesian expectations, and other anxiety-based deviations from rationality

Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
This paper proposes that there is a set of behavioral deviations from standard rational choices that differs from the rest of the deviations. This set is characterized by anxiety-based choices that are truly non-rational, whereas the rest consists of ...
Elias L. Khalil
doaj   +1 more source

Source Dependence in Effort Provision

International Economic Review, Volume 65, Issue 3, Page 1499-1517, August 2024.
Abstract We examine source dependence in the setting of effort provision. Our first experiment elicits preference over uncertain piece rate schemes to perform a real‐effort task. Our second experiment elicits effort after receiving an uncertain gift. We vary the probability of winning and the familiarity of natural sources of uncertainty.
Yiting Chen, Songfa Zhong
wiley   +1 more source

Affective Decision Making and the Ellsberg Paradox [PDF]

Affective decision-making is a strategic model of choice under risk and uncertainty where we posit two cognitive processes -- the "rational" and the "emotional" process. Observed choice is the result of equilibrium in this intrapersonal game.
Donald J. Brown, Anat Bracha
core   +2 more sources