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Biotic interactions shape the realized niche of toxic cyanobacteria. [PDF]
Nat Ecol EvolNtetsika P +8 more
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Emerging energy signals advance early warnings of extreme precipitation. [PDF]
Nat CommunZhang T +6 more
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Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2015
Numerical weather prediction has seen, in the past 25 years, a shift from a ‘deterministic’ approach, based on single numerical integrations, to a probabilistic one, with ensembles of numerical integrations used to estimate the probability distribution function of forecast states.
Roberto Buizza, Martin Leutbecher
exaly +4 more sources
Numerical weather prediction has seen, in the past 25 years, a shift from a ‘deterministic’ approach, based on single numerical integrations, to a probabilistic one, with ensembles of numerical integrations used to estimate the probability distribution function of forecast states.
Roberto Buizza, Martin Leutbecher
exaly +4 more sources
Weather Forecasting: What Sets the Forecast Skill Horizon?
Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction, 2019Determinism (a unique dependence of future states on the current state) makes weather forecasts possible, while chaos (the sensitivity of such dependence on minor details of the initial state) strictly bounds predictability.
Z. Toth, R. Buizza
semanticscholar +2 more sources
Measuring Forecast Skill: Is It Real Skill or Is It the Varying Climatology? [PDF]
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2006 AbstractIt is common practice to summarize the skill of weather forecasts from an accumulation of samples spanning many locations and dates. In calculating many of these scores, there is an implicit assumption that the climatological frequency of event occurrence is approximately invariant over all samples.
Thomas M Hamill
exaly +2 more sources
A Forecast-Skill-Based Dynamic Pre-Storm Level Control for Reservoir Flood-Control Operation
Water (Switzerland), 2021 The design and operation of reservoirs based on conventional flood-limited water levels (FLWL) implicitly adopts the assumption of hydrological stationarity.
Jianshi Zhao, Wenhua Wan, Mingna Wang
exaly +2 more sources