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Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: a skill-persistence rule
Climate Dynamics, 2018This study investigates the factors relationship between the forecast skills for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments.
Yishuai Jin, X. Rong, Zheng-Yu Liu
semanticscholar +2 more sources
Forecast-Skill-Based Simulation of Streamflow Forecasts
Advances in Water Resources, 2014Streamflow forecasts are updated periodically in real time, thereby facilitating forecast evolution. This study proposes a forecast-skill-based model of forecast evolution that is able to simulate dynamically updated streamflow forecasts. The proposed model applies stochastic models that deal with streamflow variability to generate streamflow scenarios,
Tongtiegang Zhao, Jianshi Zhao
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Monthly Weather Review, 1987
It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses.
Eugenia Kalnay, Amnon Dalcher
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It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses.
Eugenia Kalnay, Amnon Dalcher
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Does Increasing Model Stratospheric Resolution Improve Extended-Range Forecast Skill?
Geophysical Research Letters, 2011 The effect of stratospheric resolution on extended-range forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa.
Harry Hendon, David W J Thompson
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Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific
Geophysical Research Letters, 2020We examine links between tropical Pacific mean state biases and El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecast skill, using model‐analog hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST; 1961–2015) and precipitation (1979–2015) at leads of 0–12 months, generated by 28 ...
H. Ding +3 more
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Decadal Predictability and Forecast Skill
Climate Dynamics, 2013The “potential predictability” of the climate system is the upper limit of available forecast skill and can be characterized by the ratio p of the predictable variance to the total variance. While the potential predictability of the actual climate system is unknown its analog q may be obtained for a model of the climate system.
William Merryfield, V V Kharin, G J Boer
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Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill
Monthly Weather Review, 1989Abstract The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average Forecasting, both of which employ the spread between members of an ensemble of forecasts as a predictor ...
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Forecasting skill of model averages
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2009Given a collection of science-based computational models that all estimate states of the same environmental system, we compare the forecast skill of the average of the collection to the skills of the individual members. We illustrate our results through an analysis of regional climate model data and give general criteria for the average to perform more
C. L. Winter, Doug Nychka
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Frequency Dependence in Forecast Skill
Monthly Weather Review, 1990Abstract A method is proposed to calculate measures of forecast skill for high, medium and low temporal frequency variations in the atmosphere. This method is applied to a series of 128 consecutive 1 to 10-day forecasts produced at NMC with their operational global medium-range-forecast model during 1 May–5 September 1988.
H. M. van Den Dool, Suranjana Saha
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