Results 111 to 120 of about 3,114 (262)

Predicting EU Emissions Allowance Prices Using Macroeconomic Indicators and Hybrid AI Models

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Predicting carbon allowance prices has grown more crucial in relation to carbon market regulation, financial strategy, and environmental policy development. This study examines a hybrid forecasting system that combines deep learning with ensemble machine learning models to forecast the price fluctuations of EU Emissions Allowance (EUAs) within
Saptarshi Ganguly, Pooja Sengupta, Divya Aggarwal   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Threshold Asymmetric Conditional Autoregressive Range (TACARR) Model

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper introduces a Threshold Asymmetric Conditional Autoregressive Range (TACARR) model for analyzing the daily price ranges of financial assets. The proposed formulation assumes that the conditional expected range switches between two regimes, representing upward and downward market states, with the disturbance distribution also allowed ...
Isuru Ratnayake, V. A. Samaranayake
wiley   +1 more source

A New Implementation of Network GARCH Model for Stock Volatility and Co‐Volatility Forecasting

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Volatility clustering and spillovers are key features of financial time series with many cross‐sectional assets. While network analysis links similar or correlated stocks and helps trace volatility spillovers, contemporary multivariate ARCH‐GARCH formulations struggle to represent structured network dependence and remain parsimonious.
Peiyi Zhou
wiley   +1 more source

A Novel Text‐Based Framework for Forecasting Carbon Prices

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This study proposes a text‐based framework for predicting EU carbon prices. Using weekly data from 2020 to 2024, we construct a multivariate dataset combining financial indicators, commodity prices, Google Trends measures, and news‐based sentiment extracted using FinBERT.
Christian Oliver Ewald, Yaoyu Li
wiley   +1 more source

Horizon- and Regime-Dependent Performance of GARCH-Type Models: Evidence from Volatility Forecasting in a Frontier Market

International Journal of Financial Studies
In frontier markets, financial volatility exhibits long-memory properties and regime-dependent asymmetries that standard linear models do not capture. This leads to inaccuracies in forecasting risk when a single model is applied across regimes.
Abraham Kisembe Wawire, Christine Nanjala Simiyu, Munene Laiboni, Rogers Ochenge   +3 more
doaj   +1 more source

The Role of Variance Risk Premium in Derivative Pricing: Modeling, Estimation and Impact

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper estimates a model where variance risk premiums (VRP) is not fully explained by equity risk premiums (ERP). This separation can be detected thanks to a new breed of GARCH models with enough innovations to disconnect returns from variances. This type of risk‐neutralization is compatible with continuous‐time settings.
Marcos Escobar‐Anel, Lars Stentoft, Xize Ye   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Brexit and Its Impact on EU Financial Markets

International Journal of Finance &Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We investigate the impact of Brexit on volatility spillovers across the EU countries. We introduce a Brexit intensity measure that assigns an intensity score reflective of the financial markets' reaction to the events that occurred as Brexit negotiations began to unfold.
Marwan Izzeldin, Gulnur Muradoglu, Vasileios Pappas, Sheeja Sivaprasad   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Risk Transmission and Co‐Movements Between Financial Markets and Commodity Markets in the COVID‐19 Period

International Journal of Finance &Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This study examines risk transmission and co‐movements between financial markets (G7 countries and China) and commodity markets (gold and oil) during the COVID‐19 crisis. Daily closing prices for major equity indices (CAC40, CSI300, DAX30, FTSE100, MIB, NIKKEI, TSX and S&P500) and futures prices for gold, brent and WTI were analysed using DCC ...
V. Moutinho, H. Oliveira, M. Neves, J. Monteiro   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

The Relationship Among Climate Policy Uncertainty and Energy Markets: Fossil Versus Renewable and Low‐Carbon Assets

International Journal of Finance &Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the intricate relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and energy market dynamics, focusing on fossil‐based and renewable/low‐carbon energy assets. Utilising a comprehensive dataset spanning from April 1987 to December 2023, comprising monthly observations of CPU, stock market returns, spot oil prices and ...
Dimitrios Asteriou, Anastasia Dimiski
wiley   +1 more source

Alternative Data for Realised Volatility Forecasting: Limit Order Book and News Stories

International Journal of Finance &Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We examine whether two major alternative data sources, limit order book information and firm‐specific news, provide incremental predictive information for daily realised volatility forecasting within the HAR‐family, using a parsimonious framework to ensure practical implementation and comparability. The framework is designed for practical real‐
Eghbal Rahimikia, Ser‐Huang Poon
wiley   +1 more source