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Inflation Persistence and the Rationality of Inflation Expectations [PDF]
The rational expectations hypothesis for survey and model-based inflation forecasts ? from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Greenbook respectively ? is examined by properly taking into account persistence in the data. The finding of near-unit-root effects in inflation and inflation expectations motivates the use of a local-to-unity ...
Brissimis, Sophocles, Migiakis, Petros
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A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations [PDF]
AbstractThis paper develops a bivariate model of inflation and a survey‐based long‐run forecast of inflation that allows for the estimation of the link between trend inflation and the long‐run forecast. Thus, our model allows for the possibilities that long‐run forecasts taken from surveys can be equated with trend inflation, that the two are ...
Todd Clark, Joshua Chan
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Inflation Perception and the Formation of Inflation Expectations
2023In diesem Papier stellen wir einen neuen Indikator zur Messung der Inflationswahrnehmung in den Medien vor. Unser Inflationswahrnehmungsindikator (IPI) für Deutschland basiert auf einem Korpus von drei Millionen Artikeln, die zwischen Januar 2001 und November 2022 in großen Tageszeitungen veröffentlicht wurden.
Schmidt, Torsten +4 more
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Reactions of household inflation expectations to a symmetric inflation target and high inflation
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2022ABSTRACT We examine how households' euro‐area inflation expectations reacted to the ECB's adoption of a symmetric inflation target in July 2021, and the subsequent inflation surge. Using a randomised control trial within a monthly representative survey, we elicit short‐ and long‐term inflation expectations.
Gabriele Galati +2 more
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Global Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Expectations
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018Abstract In this paper we investigate dynamics of inflation and short-run inflation expectations. We estimate a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model using Bayesian techniques. We then explore the effects of three source of inflationary pressure that could drive up inflation expectations: domestic aggregate demand and supply shocks as well as a ...
Martin Feldkircher, Pierre L. Siklos
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Weighted Median Inflation: Is This Core Inflation?
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2004This paper investigates core inflation defined as the best predictor of US inflation. I compare forecasts obtained using the weighted median consumer price index inflation rate, a trimmed mean consumer price index inflation rate, the consumer price index inflation rate and the consumer price index less food and energy inflation rate.
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Inflation compensation and inflation expectations in Chile [PDF]
This paper studies the relationship between inflation compensation and inflation expectations in Chile. First, we use the present discounted value methodology to decompose the difference between the unanticipated return of nominal and inflation-linked bonds into news about expected inflation and premiums.
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Inflation synchronization among the G7and China: The important role of oil inflation
Energy Economics, 2021Shawkat Hammoudeh +2 more
exaly

