The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications [PDF]
Social Science Research Network, 2022 Households’ and firms’ subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and how ...
Michael Weber +3 more
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Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility, and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Germany. [PDF]
J Money Credit Bank, 2022 Using the exact wording of the European Central Bank's definition of price stability, we started a representative online survey of German citizens in January 2019 that is designed to measure long‐term inflation expectations and the credibility of the ...
Coleman W, Nautz D.
europepmc +2 more sources
An Inflation Expectations Horserace [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010 For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures which appear anachronistic in the modern era ...
Giselle Guzmán
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Anchored Inflation Expectations [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019 We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the postwar period.
Carlos M. Carvalho +3 more
semanticscholar +3 more sources
Do Inflation Expectations Improve Model-Based Inflation Forecasts? [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021 Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF and ...
Marta Bańbura +2 more
semanticscholar +4 more sources
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW AND BIBLIOMETRIC ANALYSIS [PDF]
Revista de Economia Contemporânea, 2022 The main purpose of this work is to conduct a systematic literature review regarding inflation expectations, their determinants, and their implications for policy making in Latin America. The analysis shows the importance of inflation expectations in the
Daniel Osorio-Barreto +2 more
doaj +3 more sources
Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2021 Economists and economic policymakers believe that households' and firms' expectations of future inflation are a key determinant of actual inflation.
Jeremy B. Rudd
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Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019 This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
M. Kose +3 more
semanticscholar +4 more sources
Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation?
Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), 2021 We examine the predictive relationship between various measures of inflation expectations and future inflation. We find that the expectations of professional economists and of businesses have tended to provide more accurate predictions of future ...
Randal J. Verbrugge, Saeed Zaman
semanticscholar +2 more sources
Asymmetric dynamic linkage between consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and international energy prices: Evidence from time-frequency wavelet and nonlinear analysis. [PDF]
PLoS OneFu L, Yuan D, Teng J.
europepmc +2 more sources