Results 11 to 20 of about 81,756 (48)
Making Sense of Consumer Inflation Expectations: The Role of Uncertainty
Social Science Research Network, 2022 Consumers’ inflation expectations play a key role in the monetary transmission mechanism. As such, it is crucial for monetary policymakers to understand what they are and how they are formed.
L. Reiche, Aidan Meyler
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Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy
Social Science Research Network, 2023 Using Italian data that include both inflation forecasts of firms and external information on their balance sheets, we study the causal effect of changes in the dispersion of beliefs about future inflation on the misallocation of resources.
Tiziano Ropele +2 more
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Tax Refund Uncertainty: Evidence and Welfare Implications
Social Science Research Network, 2023 Transfers paid through annual tax refunds are a large but uncertain source of income for poor households. We document that low-income tax filers have substantial subjective uncertainty about these refunds. We investigate the determinants and consequences
Sydnee Caldwell +2 more
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Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment
Social Science Research NetworkWe conduct a field experiment with US households to study how expectations about long-run home price growth shape spending decisions. We exogenously vary survey respondents' expectations by providing different expert forecasts.
Felix Chopra +2 more
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HOW DOES CONSUMPTION RESPOND TO NEWS ABOUT INFLATION? FIELD EVIDENCE FROM A RANDOMIZED CONTROL TRIAL
AEA Randomized Controlled Trials, 2019 We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect consumption decisions.
Olivier Coibion +3 more
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The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare
Social Science Research NetworkWe analyze US survey data and document a substantial optimistic bias of households in their expectations about future labor market transitions. We find that low-skilled individuals tend to be strongly overoptimistic, whereas high-skilled individuals have
Almut Balleer +3 more
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Social Science Research Network, 2021 We embed diagnostic expectations in a workhorse neoclassical model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of overreaction estimated from US firms’ earnings forecasts generates realistic credit cycles.
P. Bordalo +3 more
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Biased Beliefs in Search Markets
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 2023 We study the implications of biased consumer beliefs for search market outcomes in the seminal framework due to Diamond (1971). Biased consumers base their search strategy on a belief function that specifies for any (true) distribution of utility offers ...
Tobias Gamp, Daniel Krähmer
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Information Validates the Prior: A Theorem on Bayesian Updating and Applications [PDF]
American Economic Review: Insights, 2020 We develop a result on expected posteriors for Bayesians with heterogenous priors, dubbed information validates the prior (IVP). Under familiar ordering requirements, Anne expects a (Blackwell) more informative experiment to bring Bob’s posterior mean ...
N. Kartik, F. Lee, Wing Suen
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Unconventional Monetary Policy, Funding Expectations, and Firm Decisions
Social Science Research Network, 2022 We study the transmission of (unconventional) monetary policy to the real sector when firm decisions depend on both current and future credit market conditions. For a given level of current credit access, investment and employment increases more at firms
Annalisa Ferrando +2 more
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