Results 31 to 40 of about 81,756 (48)

Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments

, 2012
M. Anufriev, C. Hommes
semanticscholar   +1 more source

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Learning-through-Survey in Inflation Expectations

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2023
When surveys rely on repeat participants, this raises the possibility that survey participation may affect future responses, perhaps by prompting information acquisition between survey waves. We show that these “learning-through-survey” effects are large
Gwang-yol Kim, C. Binder
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2023
This paper analyzes monetary policy in a model with a potential unanchoring of inflation expectations. The degree of unanchoring is given by how sensitively the public’s long-run inflation expectations respond to inflation surprises.
Laura Gáti
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Motivated Beliefs and Anticipation of Uncertainty Resolution

American Economic Review: Insights, 2022
Manipulating subjects’ expectations about the resolution of uncertainty, I show that subjects update beliefs about ego-relevant information optimistically when they expect no resolution of uncertainty but neutrally when they expect immediate uncertainty ...
Christoph Drobner
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Learning with misattribution of reference dependence

Journal of Economics Theory, 2022
We examine errors in learning that arise when an agent who suffers attribution bias fails to account for her reference-dependent utility. Such an agent neglects how the sensation of elation or disappointment relative to expectations contributes to her ...
Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch, Benjamin Bushong
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Reference Dependence and Attribution Bias: Evidence from Real-Effort Experiments

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 2023
We document a form of attribution bias wherein people wrongly ascribe sensations of positive or negative surprise to the underlying disutility of a real-effort task.
Benjamin Bushong, Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch
semanticscholar   +1 more source

A Unified Model of Learning to Forecast

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
We propose a model of boundedly rational and heterogeneous expectations that unifies adaptive learning, k-level reasoning, and replicator dynamics. Level-0 forecasts evolve over time via adaptive learning. Agents revise over time their depth of reasoning
George W. Evans, Christopher G. Gibbs, Bruce McGough   +2 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Uncertainty Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Firm Beliefs: Evidence from a Representative Survey

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario.
Andreas Dibiasi, H. Mikosch, Samad Sarferaz   +2 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Recoverability and Expectations-Driven Fluctuations

, 2021
Time series methods for identifying structural economic disturbances often require disturbances to satisfy technical conditions that can be inconsistent with economic theory.
R. Chahrour, Kyle Jurado
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Silent or Salient? Ability Heterogeneity in Tournaments

Accounting Horizons
I experimentally investigate the influence of the degree heterogeneity among employees’ abilities and the salience of this knowledge on the effectiveness of relative performance information (RPI) on performance in tournaments.
Hao He
semanticscholar   +1 more source