Results 21 to 30 of about 81,756 (48)
Return Predictability, Expectations, and Investment: Experimental Evidence
The Review of financial studiesIn an investment experiment, we show variations in information afect beliefs and decision-making within the information-beliefs-decisions chain. Subjects observe the time series of a risky asset and a signal that, in random rounds, helps predict ...
Marianne Andries +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households
Social Science Research NetworkWe leverage the small open economy Switzerland as a testing ground for basic premises of macroeconomic models of endogenous information acquisition, using tailored surveys of firms and households.
H. Mikosch +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
News or Noise? The Missing Link
The American Economic Review, 2018 The literature on belief-driven business cycles treats news and noise as distinct representations of agents' beliefs. We prove they are empirically the same. Our result lets us isolate the importance of purely belief-driven fluctuations.
R. Chahrour, Kyle Jurado
semanticscholar +1 more source
Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts
Social Science Research Network, 2020 We propose a model of optimal decision-making subject to a memory constraint in the spirit of models of rational inattention. Our theory differs from that of Sims (2003) in not assuming costless memory of past cognitive states.
Rava Azeredo da Silveira +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2018 To match aggregate consumption dynamics, macroeconomic models must generate “excess smoothness” in consumption expenditures. But microfounded models are calibrated to match micro data, which exhibit no “excess smoothness.” So standard microfounded models
Christopher D. Carroll +4 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
The Short-Run Effects of Unexpected Job Loss on Health
Social Science Research NetworkThis paper provides new evidence on the effect of job loss on health. Using a unique combination of detailed micro level panel data from the Netherlands with detailed information on health measures, employment, and job loss expectations, we estimate the ...
J. Been, Eduard Suari-Andreu, M. Knoef
semanticscholar +1 more source
The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2017 Commonly used instruments for the identification of monetary policy disturbances are likely to combine the true policy shock with information about the state of the economy due to the information disclosed through the policy action.
Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, G. Ricco
semanticscholar +1 more source
Speculative Fever: Investor Contagion in the Housing Bubble
The American Economic Review, 2016 Historical anecdotes abound of new investors being drawn into a booming asset market, only to suffer when the market turns. While the role of investor contagion in asset bubbles has been explored extensively in the theoretical literature, causal ...
Patrick Bayer +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area than in the United States?
, 2008 This paper compares the evolution of long-run inflation expectations in the euro area and the United States, using evidence from financial markets and surveys of professional forecasters.
Meredith J. Beechey +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation
, 2013 Olivier Coibion +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source