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Long-term forecasting and evaluation
International Journal of Forecasting, 2007Abstract Looking ahead thirty years is a difficult task, but is not impossible. In this paper we illustrate how to evaluate such long-term forecasts. Long-term forecasting is likely to be dominated by trend curves, particularly the simple linear and exponential trends.
Clive W.J. Granger, Yongil Jeon
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Long-term solar generation forecasting
2016 IEEE/PES Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition (T&D), 2016The rapid growth of solar Photovoltaic (PV) technology has been very visible over the past decade. Such increase in the integration of solar generation has brought attention to the forecasting issues. This paper presents a new approach to tackle the long-term forecasting challenge and accordingly reduce the uncertainty of the PV forecast, which would ...
Mohana Alanazi +2 more
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Long-Term Volatility Forecasting
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012A variety of historical-volatility, peer-historical-volatility, implied-volatility and blended estimators of stock price volatility are developed and tested for a group of large U.S. companies over roughly a thirty-year window. Longer-term historical estimators (up to fifteen years) are found to outperform shorter-term estimators as forecasts of five ...
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Long-Term Ionospheric Forecasting System
2004Abstract : Report developed under Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) contract Topic AFO3-O16. The objective of this effort is to investigate the feasibility of an end-to-end global long-term (up to 3 days) ionospheric forecast model based on a fusion of several diverse technologies and to research the related probability density function (PDF ...
Jason Boisvert +3 more
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Long-term, solar flare fluence forecasting
Radiation Measurements, 1996The problem of forecasting solar flare proton fluences is discussed and some projection techniques are proposed for long-duration space missions. The proton energy ranges considered are > 10 and > 30 MeV. Results of modeling the proton fluences are compared with available observational data.
I.V. Getselev +5 more
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Models for long-term energy forecasting
2003 IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting (IEEE Cat. No.03CH37491), 2004Based on historical data related to an actual power system, the paper develops and evaluates the accuracy of a range of mathematical models for long-term forecasting of energy demand in the system. Starting from the basic relationship in an econometric model based on regression analysis, the development and evaluation are extended to include advanced ...
C.W. Fu, T.T. Nguyen
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Long‐term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 1994We estimate long‐term worldwide earthquake probabilities by extrapolating catalogs of seismic moment solutions. We base the forecast on correlations of seismic moment tensor solutions. The forecast is expressed as a map showing predicted rate densities for earthquake occurrence and for focal mechanism orientation.
Y. Y. Kagan, D. D. Jackson
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Future prices in long-term forecasting
Futures, 1969Long-range planning systems have, in the past, been based mainly on “volume” changes, implying a constant price structure. But the impact of changes in relative prices on the structures of output are at least as important as the impact of changes in technology.
E. Fontela, G. McNeill
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Long-Term Forecasting of World Economy
World Economy and International Relations, 2014The paper considers contemporary approaches of long-term forecasting of world and national economics. Foreign practice is of especial interest of authors. Researches and results of PricewaterhouseCoopers and Goldman Sachs are exposed in details. Authors make the following conclusions: a production function model is used often to generate forecasts. The
Y. Lukashin, L. Rakhlina
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Broken symmetry and long‐term forecasting
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2007This paper takes a novel approach to a known basic difficulty with computer simulations of nonlinear dynamical systems relevant to climate modeling. Specifically, we show by minimal examples how small systematic modeling errors might survive averaging over an ensemble of initial conditions.
Christopher Essex +2 more
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