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Smoothing and forecasting mortality rates
Statistical Modelling, 2004The prediction of future mortality rates is a problem of fundamental importance for the insurance and pensions industry. We show how the method of P-splines can be extended to the smoothing and forecasting of two-dimensional mortality tables. We use a penalized generalized linear model with Poisson errors and show how to construct regression and ...
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Smoothing, Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates
European Journal of Population, 2021The Lee-Carter (LC) model represents a landmark paper in mortality forecasting. While having been widely accepted and adopted, the model has some limitations that hinder its performance. Some variants of the model have been proposed to deal with these drawbacks individually, none coped with them all at the same time.
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Modeling and forecasting mortality rates
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2011zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
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Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992Abstract Time series methods are used to make long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals, of age-specific mortality in the United States from 1990 to 2065. First, the logs of the age-specific death rates are modeled as a linear function of an unobserved period-specific intensity index, with parameters depending on age.
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Forecasting Mortality with Autoencoders: An Application to Italian Mortality Data
2023Predictions of human survival probabilities are an extremely relevant topic in many fields of human activities and interests, including in particular the insurance field. The model considered the most reliable, and, for this reason, most widely used both in the literature and in practical applications, is the Lee–Carter model. In this paper, we propose
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