Estimation of Uncertainty in Mortality Projections Using State-Space Lee-Carter Model
Mathematics, 2020 The study develops alternatives of the classical Lee-Carter stochastic mortality model in assessment of uncertainty of mortality rates forecasts. We use the Lee-Carter model expressed as linear Gaussian state-space model or state-space model with ...
Rokas Gylys, Jonas Šiaulys
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Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality. [PDF]
PLoS ONE, 2014 BackgroundCoronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors.
Rosa Björk Thorolfsdottir +5 more
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Variability in temperature-related mortality projections under climate change. [PDF]
Environ Health Perspect, 2014 Background: Most studies that have assessed impacts on mortality of future temperature increases have relied on a small number of simulations and have not addressed the variability and sources of uncertainty in their mortality projections. Objectives: We
Benmarhnia T +6 more
europepmc +2 more sources
Temperature-attributable mortality projections under scenarios of climate change for Oslo, Norway [PDF]
BMC Public HealthBackground & Aim Climate change and evolving of population dynamics, including ageing and changes in population size, are reshaping temperature-attributable mortality patterns. However, there is limited evidence on the prospective trajectory of heat- and
Liliana Vázquez Fernández +3 more
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Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030.
PLoS Medicine, 2006 BackgroundGlobal and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project.
Colin D Mathers, Dejan Loncar
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Life Expectancy Changes and Their Consequences for Pension System in Finland and the Czech Republic [PDF]
Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal, 2023 Finland and the Czech Republic are among the countries where population ageing has been the most pronounced in the last decade. The aim of the paper is to describe future development of life expectancy in the context of pension system reforms that are ...
Ondřej Šimpach
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Premature mortality projections to inform clinical practice and public health priorities [PDF]
The Lancet Regional Health. Western PacificSheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam +3 more
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Bayesian Mixture Modelling for Mortality Projection [PDF]
Risks, 2021 Although a large number of mortality projection models have been proposed in the literature, relatively little attention has been paid to a formal assessment of the effect of model uncertainty. In this paper, we construct a Bayesian framework for embedding more than one mortality projection model and utilise the finite mixture model concept to allow ...
Jackie Li, Atsuyuki Kogure
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Disruption of Life Insurance Profitability in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Risks, 2022 Life insurance profitability depends on reliable mortality risk projections and pricing. While the COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruptions around the world, this is a temporary mortality shock likely to dissipate.
Maria Carannante +4 more
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Risks, 2022 The Lee–Carter model, the dominant mortality projection modeling in the literature, was criticized for its homoscedastic error assumption. This was corrected in extensions to the model based on the assumption that the number of deaths follows Poisson or ...
Yaser Awad, Shaul K. Bar-Lev, Udi Makov
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