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Acquisitions, Overconfident Managers and Self‐attribution Bias
European Financial Management, 2007Abstract We examine whether acquisitions by overconfident managers generate superior abnormal returns and whether managerial overconfidence stems from self‐attribution. Self‐attribution bias suggests that overconfidence plays a greater role in higher order acquisition deals predicting lower wealth effects for higher order acquisition deals.
Petmezas, Dimitris, Doukas, John
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From Noise to Bias: Overconfidence in New Product Forecasting
Management Science, 2020We study decision behavior in the selection, forecasting, and production for a new product. In a stylized behavioral model and five experiments, we generate new insight into when and why this combination of tasks can lead to overconfidence (specifically, overestimating the demand).
Daniel C. Feiler, Jordan D. Tong
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Overconfidence in Predictions as an Effect of Desirability Bias
2008Most people hold unrealistic positive beliefs about their personal skills, their knowledge (Fischoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1977), and their possibilities to overcome the performance of other individuals (Weinstein, 1980). This general tendency, called overconfidence, is a stable and pervasive finding both in many real-life domains and in several ...
Giardini F +3 more
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Overconfidence Bias in International Stock Prices
The Journal of Portfolio Management, 2003This study expands tests of the overconfidence hypothesis to international markets, where the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that stock prices the world around are also biased by investor overconfidence. A novel aspect of the test here is combination of the overconfidence hypothesis with valuation theory.
James Scott, Margaret Stumpp, Peter Xu
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Self-Attribution Bias and Overconfidence Among Nonprofessional Traders
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017Abstract We investigate consequences of the self-attribution bias for nonprofessional traders. By applying a textual analysis of more than 44,000 public comments on a large social trading platform, we contribute to empirical literature on investment and trading behavior in three ways: First, we show that one component of the self-attribution bias ...
Daniel Czaja, Florian Röder
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Overconfidence and Self-Serving Bias
2017Overconfidence is manifested by the overestimation or exaggeration of one’s ability to perform a particular task successfully. It may take one of three forms: (i) overestimation of one’s actual performance, (ii) overplacement of one’s performance relative to others and (iii) excessive confidence in own beliefs.
Imad A. Moosa, Vikash Ramiah
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Determinants of overconfidence bias in Indian stock market
Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 2018Purpose The purpose of this paper is to conduct an exploratory analysis of the demographic factors and investors’ characteristics, which cause changes in the extent of overconfidence level and its constituents among the individuals. Design/methodology/approach A survey has been conducted to explore the determinants of overconfidence and its ...
Priya Kansal, Seema Singh
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Bias and Overconfidence in Parametric Models of Interactive Processes*
American Journal of Political Science, 2015We assess the ability of logit, probit and numerous other parametric models to test a hypothesis that two variables interact in influencing the probability that some event will occur [Pr(Y)] in what we believe is a very common situation: when one's theory is insufficiently strong to dictate a specific functional form for the data generating process ...
William D. Berry +2 more
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Peer‐comparison overconfidence: Does it measure bias in self‐evaluation?
PsyCh Journal, 2012AbstractOverconfidence is generally regarded as one of the most robust findings in the psychology of judgment. A precise method for evaluating overconfidence is essential if researchers are to validate these findings. Although peer‐comparison questions are a convenient tool for measuring overconfidence, their validity has been questioned. We employed a
Yan-Ling, Bi, Xue-Lei, Du, Shu, Li
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The Impact Of Self-attribution Bias and Overconfidence Bias on Perceived Market Efficiency
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019This study examines the mechanism by which self-attribution bias and overconfidence bias influences perceived market efficiency. For this purpose we use questionnaire and collect data from 200 investors of Islamabad Stock Exchange (ISE). Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investor’s behavior in less ...
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