Results 241 to 250 of about 10,696 (267)

On a probabilistic model of forecasting

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1978
Abstract One of the methods of studying complex objects is the construction of a mathematical model, containing such information about the object that is necessary to solve a definite problem connected with it. Mathematical modeling, based on the construction of models of various kinds can be used in forecasting.
Tadeusz Galanc, Jan Mikûs
openaire   +1 more source

Probabilistic forecast determination

2021
Probabilistic forecasts have gained significant ground nowadays compared to point forecasts due to the additional information they provide. In point forecasts, the main metric for evaluation is the accuracy of our model's point predictions. The goal of this work is to theoretically discuss probabilistic forecasts and present ways to evaluate their ...
openaire   +1 more source

Probabilistic Forecasting for Contractors

Management Science, 1971
Firms that perform work on contract to others often estimate their sales by assigning a probability of award to each potential contract, finding the expected value of each contract and then summing these expected values. Our methodology provides a complete probability distribution around the company sales forecast mean with no further data input than ...
H. E. Kierulff, D. E. Robison
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Bayesian fusion of probabilistic forecasts

Aufgrund von allgegenwärtigem Rauschen und Ambiguitäten wird unsere Welt von Unsicherheit beherrscht. Um der Unsicherheit in Wahrnehmung, Handlungen und Entscheidungen begegnen zu können, haben Menschen eine interne Repräsentation ihrer Unsicherheit und kommunizieren diese in Interaktionen mit anderen Menschen.
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Review of Deterministic and Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting: Models, Methods, and Future Research

Electricity, 2021
Pavlos Georgilakis, Ioannis Bazionis
exaly  

DeepAR: Probabilistic forecasting with autoregressive recurrent networks

International Journal of Forecasting, 2020
Valentin Flunkert, Jan Gasthaus, Tim Januschowski   +2 more
exaly  

Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts of epidemics

The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 2015
Rachel Lowe, Marilia Sá Carvalho, Caio A S Coelho, Christovam Barcellos, Trevor C Bailey, David B Stephenson, Xavier Rodó   +6 more
openaire   +2 more sources

Probabilistic solar power forecasting based on weather scenario generation

Applied Energy, 2020
, Mucun Sun, Cong Feng
exaly  

Probabilistic forecasting with temporal convolutional neural network

Neurocomputing, 2020
Yanfei Kang, Zizhuo Wang, Yixiong Chen   +2 more
exaly  

Probabilistic load forecasting for buildings considering weather forecasting uncertainty and uncertain peak load

Applied Energy, 2019
Rui Tang, Shengwei Wang, Lei Xu
exaly