Results 21 to 30 of about 2,073,215 (262)
Mechanism design for eliciting probabilistic estimates from multiple suppliers with unknown costs and limited precision [PDF]
, 2009 This paper reports on the design of a novel two-stage mechanism, based on strictly proper scoring rules, that allows a centre to acquire a costly probabilistic estimate of some unknown parameter, by eliciting and fusing estimates from multiple suppliers.
Enrico H. Gerding +11 more
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Coherent conditional probabilities and proper scoring rules
, 2011 In this paper we study the relationship between the notion of coherence for conditional probability assessments on a family of conditional events and the notion of admissibility with respect to scoring rules. By extending a recent result given in literature for unconditional events, we prove, for any given strictly proper scoring rule s, the ...
Gilio, A, SANFILIPPO, Giuseppe
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Properization: constructing proper scoring rules via Bayes acts [PDF]
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 2019 Scoring rules serve to quantify predictive performance. A scoring rule is proper if truth telling is an optimal strategy in expectation. Subject to customary regularity conditions, every scoring rule can be made proper, by applying a special case of the Bayes act construction studied by Grünwald and Dawid (2004) and Dawid (2007), to which we refer as ...
Brehmer, Jonas R., Gneiting, Tilmann
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The Evolution of Reputation-Based Cooperation in Regular Networks
Games, 2017 Despite recent advances in reputation technologies, it is not clear how reputation systems can affect human cooperation in social networks. Although it is known that two of the major mechanisms in the evolution of cooperation are spatial selection and ...
Tatsuya Sasaki +3 more
doaj +1 more source
Evaluating the discrimination ability of proper multi-variate scoring rules [PDF]
Annals of Operations Research, 2022 AbstractProper scoring rules are commonly applied to quantify the accuracy of distribution forecasts. Given an observation they assign a scalar score to each distribution forecast, with the lowest expected score attributed to the true distribution. The energy and variogram scores are two rules that have recently gained some popularity in multivariate ...
Carol Alexander +3 more
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Optimal site selection for sitting a solar park using multi-criteria decision analysis and geographical information systems [PDF]
Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems, 2016 Among the renewable power sources, solar power is rapidly becoming popular because it is inexhaustible, clean, and dependable. It has also become more efficient since the power conversion efficiency of photovoltaic solar cells has increased.
A. Georgiou, D. Skarlatos
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Compatible weighted proper scoring rules [PDF]
Biometrika, 2012 Many proper scoring rules such as the Brier and log scoring rules implicitly reward a probability forecaster relative to a uniform baseline distribution. Recent work has motivated weighted proper scoring rules, which have an additional baseline parameter. To date two families of weighted proper scoring rules have been introduced, the weighted power and
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A sequential decomposition of proper scoring rules [PDF]
, 2021 <p>The objective assessment of forecasts plays an integral role in the development of a prediction system. Scoring rules condense all information regarding forecast performance into a single numerical value, providing a convenient framework to objectively rank and compare competing prediction schemes.
Sam Allen, Chris Ferro, Frank Kwasniok
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Proper Scoring Rules for Evaluating Asymmetry in Density Forecasting [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020 This paper proposes a novel asymmetric continuous probabilistic score (ACPS) for evaluating and comparing density forecasts. It extends the proposed score and defines a weighted version, which emphasizes regions of interest, such as the tails or the center of a variable's range.
Iacopini, Matteo +2 more
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