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Tailored proper scoring rules elicit decision weights [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2015 Proper scoring rules are scoring methods that incentivize honest reporting of subjective probabilities, where an agent strictly maximizes his expected score by reporting his true belief.
Arthur Carvalho
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Probabilistic Coherence and Proper Scoring Rules [PDF]
IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 2009 LaTeX2, 15 ...
Elliott H. Lieb +2 more
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Probabilistic day-ahead forecasting of system-level renewable energy and electricity demand [PDF]
Nature CommunicationsIncreasing shares of wind and solar generation, together with rising electricity demand, introduce growing uncertainty into power system operations. Accurate day-ahead forecasts of electricity demand and renewable generation are essential for system ...
Guillermo Terrén-Serrano +2 more
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Everything Is Prediction: Modern Machine Learning as Bayesian Inference [PDF]
EntropyWe argue that the core methods of modern machine learning—conformal prediction, large language models and in-context learning, and generative/diffusion models—are not rivals to Bayesian inference but implementations of it, almost always of its predictive
Nicholas G. Polson +2 more
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Methods for measuring implementation fidelity to the transitional care model [PDF]
TrialsBackground Fidelity is defined as the extent to which an intervention is delivered as intended. Without a clear understanding of fidelity to an intervention, variability in implementation may be confounded with observed outcomes, making valid conclusions
Monica L. Ahrens +9 more
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Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation [PDF]
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2007 Scoring rules assess the quality of probabilistic forecasts, by assigning a numerical score based on the predictive distribution and on the event or value that materializes. A scoring rule is proper if the forecaster maximizes the expected score for an observation drawn from the distributionF if he or she issues the probabilistic forecast F, rather ...
Tilmann Gneiting, Adrian Raftery
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Proper Scoring Rules and Bregman Divergence
Bernoulli, 2018 We revisit the mathematical foundations of proper scoring rules (PSRs) and Bregman divergences and present their characteristic properties in a unified theoretical framework. In many situations it is preferable not to generate a PSR directly from its convex entropy on the unit simplex but instead by the sublinear extension of the entropy to the ...
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Proper Scoring Rules for Estimation and Forecast Evaluation
Annual Review of Statistics and Its ApplicationProper scoring rules have been a subject of growing interest in recent years, not only as tools for evaluation of probabilistic forecasts but also as methods for estimating probability distributions. In this article, we review the mathematical foundations of proper scoring rules, including general characterization results and important families of ...
Johanna Ziegel
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An IRT forecasting model: linking proper scoring rules to item response theory [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2017 This article proposes an Item Response Theoretical (IRT) forecasting model that incorporates proper scoring rules and provides evaluations of forecasters’ expertise in relation to the features of the specific questions they answer.
Yuanchao Emily Bo +4 more
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Evaluating probabilistic forecasts for maritime engineering operations
Data-Centric Engineering, 2023 Maritime engineering relies on model forecasts for many different processes, including meteorological and oceanographic forcings, structural responses, and energy demands. Understanding the performance and evaluation of such forecasting models is crucial
Lachlan Astfalck +2 more
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