Results 41 to 50 of about 2,386,323 (274)

Proper scoring rules for general decision models [PDF]

Games and Economic Behavior, 2008
On the domain of Choquet expected utility preferences with risk neutral lottery evaluation and totally monotone capacities, we demonstrate that proper scoring rules do not exist. This implies the non-existence of proper scoring rules for any larger class of preferences (CEU with convex capacities, multiple priors).
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Psychological effects of proper scoring rules [PDF]

Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1973
Abstract Proper scoring rules (PSRs) have been derived to elicit good probability assessments. Because there are so many different kinds of PSRs, this experiment was designed to determine if any particular characteristics contribute to effectiveness. Subjects observed poker chips in jars and bet on the color of the chip to be sampled.
Jensen, Floyd A., Peterson, Cameron R.
openaire   +2 more sources

The Evolution of Reputation-Based Cooperation in Regular Networks

Games, 2017
Despite recent advances in reputation technologies, it is not clear how reputation systems can affect human cooperation in social networks. Although it is known that two of the major mechanisms in the evolution of cooperation are spatial selection and ...
Tatsuya Sasaki, Hitoshi Yamamoto, Isamu Okada, Satoshi Uchida   +3 more
doaj   +1 more source

On Comparison of Stochastic Reserving Methods with Bootstrapping

Risks, 2017
We consider the well-known stochastic reserve estimation methods on the basis of generalized linear models, such as the (over-dispersed) Poisson model, the gamma model and the log-normal model.
Liivika Tee, Meelis Käärik, Rauno Viin
doaj   +1 more source

Incentivizing honest performative predictions with proper scoring rules

CoRR, 2023
Accepted for the 39th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2023)
Caspar Oesterheld, Johannes Treutlein, Emery Cooper, Rubi Hudson   +3 more
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A Truthful Two-Stage Mechanism for Eliciting Probabilistic Estimates with Unknown Costs [PDF]

, 2008
This paper reports on the design of a novel two-stage mechanism, based on strictly proper scoring rules, that motivates selfish rational agents to make a costly probabilistic estimate or forecast of a specified precision and report it truthfully to a ...
Jennings, Nick, Gerding, E. H., Jennings, N. R, Papakonstantinou, Athanasios, Rogers, Alex, Gerding, Enrico, Papakonstantinou, A., Rogers, A.   +7 more
core   +1 more source

Weighted scoringRules: Emphasizing Particular Outcomes When Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts

Journal of Statistical Software
When predicting future events, it is common to issue forecasts that are probabilistic, in the form of probability distributions over the range of possible outcomes. Such forecasts can be evaluated using proper scoring rules.
Sam Allen
doaj   +1 more source

Using CVSS scores can make more informed and more adapted Intrusion Detection Systems [PDF]

Journal of Universal Computer Science
Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) are essential cybersecurity components. Previous cyberattack detection methods relied more on signatures and rules to detect cyberattacks, although there has been a change in paradigm in the last decade, with Machine ...
Robin Duraz, David Espes, Julien Francq, Sandrine Vaton   +3 more
doaj   +3 more sources

The geometry of proper scoring rules [PDF]

Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 2006
zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
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Evaluating the use of social contact data to produce age-specific short-term forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in England.

PLoS Computational Biology, 2023
Mathematical and statistical models can be used to make predictions of how epidemics may progress in the near future and form a central part of outbreak mitigation and control.
James D Munday, Sam Abbott, Sophie Meakin, Sebastian Funk   +3 more
doaj   +1 more source