Results 31 to 40 of about 2,073,215 (262)
A Truthful Two-Stage Mechanism for Eliciting Probabilistic Estimates with Unknown Costs [PDF]
, 2008 This paper reports on the design of a novel two-stage mechanism, based on strictly proper scoring rules, that motivates selfish rational agents to make a costly probabilistic estimate or forecast of a specified precision and report it truthfully to a ...
Jennings, Nick +7 more
core +1 more source
Minimum scoring rule inference [PDF]
, 2016 Proper scoring rules are devices for encouraging honest assessment of probability distributions. Just like log-likelihood, which is a special case, a proper scoring rule can be applied to supply an unbiased estimating equation for any statistical model ...
A. Philip Dawid +7 more
core +1 more source
A construction principle for proper scoring rules [PDF]
Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society, Series B, 2021 Proper scoring rules enable decision-theoretically principled comparisons of probabilistic forecasts. New scoring rules can be constructed by identifying the predictive distribution with an element of a parametric family and then applying a known scoring rule.
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The Brier score does not evaluate the clinical utility of diagnostic tests or prediction models
Diagnostic and Prognostic Research, 2017 Background A variety of statistics have been proposed as tools to help investigators assess the value of diagnostic tests or prediction models. The Brier score has been recommended on the grounds that it is a proper scoring rule that is affected by both ...
Melissa Assel +2 more
doaj +1 more source
Proper scoring rules for general decision models [PDF]
Games and Economic Behavior, 2008 On the domain of Choquet expected utility preferences with risk neutral lottery evaluation and totally monotone capacities, we demonstrate that proper scoring rules do not exist. This implies the non-existence of proper scoring rules for any larger class of preferences (CEU with convex capacities, multiple priors).
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Psychological effects of proper scoring rules [PDF]
Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1973 Abstract Proper scoring rules (PSRs) have been derived to elicit good probability assessments. Because there are so many different kinds of PSRs, this experiment was designed to determine if any particular characteristics contribute to effectiveness. Subjects observed poker chips in jars and bet on the color of the chip to be sampled.
Jensen, Floyd A., Peterson, Cameron R.
openaire +2 more sources
Incentivizing honest performative predictions with proper scoring rules
CoRR, 2023 Accepted for the 39th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2023)
Caspar Oesterheld +3 more
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The geometry of proper scoring rules [PDF]
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 2006 zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
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FEBS Letters, EarlyView.CT10 regulator of kinase (CRK) and CRK‐Like (CRKL) are signaling adaptors driving cell adhesion, motility, differentiation, and proliferation. SH2‐domain containing (SH) proteins are enriched in YXXP motifs which when phosphorylated create preferred binding sites for CRK family SH2 domains.
Phoebe M. Cousens +8 more
wiley +1 more source
Proper Scoring Rules and Domination
, 2021 I generalize a theorem of Predd, et al.~(2009) on domination and strictly proper scoring rules to the case of non-additive scoring rules.
openaire +2 more sources