UK Forecasts of Annual GDP: Their Accuracy and the Information Categories Underlying Their Revisions
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Policy makers are concerned with the accuracy of GDP forecasts and want to understand the reasons for the revision of forecasts. We study these issues by examining forecasts of annual UK GDP growth by a panel of agents, published monthly by HM Treasury. We focus on two main issues: the developing accuracy of the group‐mean forecast as horizons
Nigel Meade, Ciaran Driver
wiley +1 more source
Calculating the fatigue strength of load-bearing structures of special self-propelled rolling stock. [PDF]
Sci RepMukhamedova Z +6 more
europepmc +1 more source
Improving Portfolio Optimization by DCC And DECO GARCH: Evidence from Istanbul Stock Exchange [PDF]
In this paper, the performance of global minimum variance (GMV) portfolios constructed by DCC and DECO-GARCH are compared to that of GMV portfolios constructed by sample covariance and constant correlation methods in terms of reduced volatility.
Yilmaz, Tolgahan
core +1 more source
A Fuzzy Framework for Realized Volatility Prediction: Empirical Evidence From Equity Markets
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This study introduces a realized volatility fuzzy time series (RV‐FTS) model that applies a fuzzy c‐means clustering algorithm to estimate time‐varying c$$ c $$ latent volatility states and their corresponding membership degrees. These memberships are used to construct a fuzzified volatility estimate as a weighted average of cluster centroids.
Shafqat Iqbal, Štefan Lyócsa
wiley +1 more source
Identifying critical components for railways rolling stock reliability: a case study for Iran. [PDF]
Sci RepSeyedan Oskouei SF +2 more
europepmc +1 more source
The Random Walk Hypothesis and the Behavior of Foreign Capital Portfolio Flows: the Brazilian Stock Market Case [PDF]
In this paper the random walk hypothesis is tested for a set of daily Brazilian stock data given by the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA) in the period of 1986-1998.
Benjamin Miranda Tabak
core
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We study the accuracy of a variety of parametric price duration‐based realized variance estimators constructed via various financial duration models and compare their forecasting performance with the performance of various nonparametric return‐based realized variance estimators.
Björn Schulte‐Tillmann +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Collaborative optimization of depot location, capacity and rolling stock scheduling considering maintenance requirements. [PDF]
Sci RepZhong Q +5 more
europepmc +1 more source
Machine Learning Approaches to Forecast the Realized Volatility of Crude Oil Prices
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This paper presents an evaluation of the accuracy of machine learning (ML) techniques in forecasting the realized volatility of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices. We compare several ML algorithms, including regularization, regression trees, random forests, and neural networks, to several heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models ...
Talha Omer +3 more
wiley +1 more source
A Deep Learning Framework for Forecasting Medium‐Term Covariance in Multiasset Portfolios
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Forecasting the covariance matrix of asset returns is central to portfolio construction, risk management, and asset pricing. However, most existing models struggle at medium‐term horizons, several weeks to months, where shifting market regimes and slower dynamics prevail.
Pedro Reis, Ana Paula Serra, João Gama
wiley +1 more source