Results 211 to 220 of about 978,873 (288)

Forecasting Duration in High‐Frequency Financial Data Using a Self‐Exciting Flexible Residual Point Process

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self‐exciting flexible residual point process. High‐frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy‐tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge for accurate prediction.
Kyungsub Lee
wiley   +1 more source

Loss‐Aware Forecast Construction for Realized Variance

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecasts of realized variance are commonly constructed from models of log‐realized variance and then transformed back to the original scale. However, the resulting forecasts are often evaluated using loss functions defined in relative rather than absolute terms, creating a potential mismatch between forecast construction and forecast ...
Nick Taylor
wiley   +1 more source

Climate Risks and the Risk Premia of AI Stocks: Some Forecasting Experiments

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This study examines whether physical and transition climate‐risk measures predict the risk premia of AI‐related stocks, and whether incorporating these risks improves forecast performance relative to benchmark models. The findings suggest that global transition climate shocks lower the premia of AI stocks, while US climate policy increases ...
Afees A. Salisu, Abeeb O. Olaniran
wiley   +1 more source

Beyond Prediction: Data, Baselines, Explanation, and Causation in Machine Learning for Food Insecurity

open access: yesFood Safety and Health, EarlyView.
The gains from machine learning in nowcasting and forecasting food insecurity are still small and limited and cannot be observed in all countries. This review summarizes the public resources for data, corrects common misconceptions about model requirements, and establishes baseline requirements, explanations, causal inference, and equity in operational
Shabnam Mehboob   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Tail Risk Transmission in Agricultural and Energy Markets

open access: yesJournal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper examines downside hedging, tail diversification, and extreme tail risk transmission between crude oil and agricultural commodity futures over two decades. We develop complementary indicators of downside dependence, including sign‐switching frequency and persistence, to assess tail risk dynamics, hedging effectiveness, and associated
Emmanuel Senyo Fianu   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

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