Results 81 to 90 of about 1,024,956 (306)

Forecasting Peaks of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics

PLoS Currents, 2013
We present a framework for near real-time forecast of influenza epidemics using a simulation optimization approach. The method combines an individual-based model and a simple root finding optimization method for parameter estimation and forecasting. In this study, retrospective forecasts were generated for seasonal influenza epidemics using web-based ...
Nsoesie, Elaine, Mararthe, Madhav, Brownstein, John   +2 more
openaire   +2 more sources

Effectiveness of the Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Rainfall Index (PRF‐RI) Program: Interval Selections With Uniform Premium Subsidy Rates

Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This study examines interval selection in the Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Rainfall Index (PRF‐RI) program and evaluates how uniform premium subsidy rates affect optimal interval selections. Using South Dakota as a case study, we show a trend of increasing selection of nonproduction intervals from 2013 to 2024, raising concerns about program
Whoi Cho, Matthew Diersen
wiley   +1 more source

Seasonal dynamic factor analysis and bootstrap inference : application to electricity market forecasting [PDF]

Year-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is an important issue in the current context of electricity markets. Nevertheless, only one-day-ahead forecasting is commonly tackled up in previous published works.
Carolina Garcia-Martos, Julio Rodriguez, andrés M. Alonso, Maria Jesus Sanchez   +3 more
core  

Return and Volatility Spillovers Among Major Cotton Markets

Agribusiness, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This study explores return and volatility transmission among major cotton markets. Several events have disrupted cotton supply and demand in recent years, leading to heightened price volatility and significant shifts in market interconnections.
Susmitha Kalli, Berna Karali, Yangxuan Liu, Munisamy Gopinath   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Supporting decision-making in the sugar industry with integrated seasonal climate forecasting [PDF]

, 2012
An integrated approach has been developed linking seasonal climate forecasting models to sugar yield, production and sugar content models in order to improve predictability of the size of the Queensland sugar crop in any ...
Cliffe, Neil, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger C., Everingham, Yvette   +3 more
core  

Cost Pass‐Through in Crisis: Evidence From the German Malt‐Beer Supply Chain

Agribusiness, EarlyView.
Abstract Global agri‐food supply chains are increasingly exposed to geopolitical shocks, climate volatility, and market consolidation, factors that disrupt traditional price relationships and reshape market power dynamics. Nowhere is this more visible than in the brewing sector, where agricultural raw materials meet complex industrial processing and ...
Nikolas Bublik, Lukáš Čechura
wiley   +1 more source

Automatic forecasting with a modified exponential smoothing state space framework [PDF]

A new automatic forecasting procedure is proposed based on a recent exponential smoothing framework which incorporates a Box-Cox transformation and ARMA residual corrections.
Alysha M De Livera
core  

Value of seasonal forecasting for sugarcane farm irrigation planning

, 2019
Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) have potential to improve productivity and profitability in the sugar industry. However, they are often underutilised due to insufficient evidence of the economic value of the forecasts, especially when there is a level ...
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Cobon, David, Attard, Steve, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Kouadio, Louis, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Stone, Roger, David Cobon, Kathryn Reardon-Smith, Louis Kouadio, Duc-Anh An-Vo, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Roger Stone, Steve Attard   +13 more
core   +1 more source

When the River Runs Low: Heterogeneous Impacts of Transportation Disruptions on Local Grain Basis

Agribusiness, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT A substantial share of U.S. soybean and corn exports from the Midwest moves by barge along the Mississippi River system to export terminals in the Louisiana Gulf. Transportation costs between Midwestern grain elevators and export terminals create a wedge between prices at these locations, and shocks to these costs are partially passed on to ...
Yuan Zhang, Andrew E. Anderson, Nicholas J. Pates, Eunchun Park   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in epidemic-prone areas of Ethiopia: a simple seasonal adjustment method performs best.

, 2002
The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of different methods of forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in areas with unstable transmission.
Abeku, Tarekegn A, Olana, Dereje, Habbema, JDF, Borsboom, Gerard, van Oortmarssen, Gerrit J, Teklehaimanot, Awash, de Vlas, Sake J, Kebede, Asnakew   +7 more
core   +1 more source