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Forecast Accuracy and Forecaster Disagreement in the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Research Brief (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), 2023 Patrick Doelp
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Reporting Biases and Survey Results: Evidence from European Professional Forecasters [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007 Using data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we investigate the reporting practices of survey participants by comparing their point predictions and the mean/median/mode of their probability forecasts. We find that the individual point predictions, on average, tend to be biased towards favourable outcomes: they suggest too high growth ...
García, Juan Angel, Manzanares, Andrés
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Empirical Economics, 2006
Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts.
Michael P. Clements
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Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts.
Michael P. Clements
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Business Perspectives and Research, 2023
The present study contributes to our understanding regarding private-sector inflation expectations and how central bank communications influence them in an emerging economy like India.
P. Kapoor, Sujata Kar
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The present study contributes to our understanding regarding private-sector inflation expectations and how central bank communications influence them in an emerging economy like India.
P. Kapoor, Sujata Kar
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Inattentive professional forecasters
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2013 Using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro-level, we emphasize two new facts: forecasters (i) fail to systematically update their forecasts and (ii) disagree even when updating.
Philippe Andrade, Hervé Le Bihan
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Journal of Forecasting
This study presents a novel and fully probabilistic approach for combining model‐based forecasts with surveys or other judgmental forecasts. In our method, survey forecasts are integrated as penalty terms for the model parameters, facilitating a ...
Milan Szabo
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This study presents a novel and fully probabilistic approach for combining model‐based forecasts with surveys or other judgmental forecasts. In our method, survey forecasts are integrated as penalty terms for the model parameters, facilitating a ...
Milan Szabo
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Growth forecast revisions over business cycles: Evidence from the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Economics Letters, 2020Abstract This paper studies how expectations regarding current and future output growth are revised as the state of the economy evolves. We study this issue using GDP growth forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find an asymmetric relationship between forecast revisions and GDP growth.
Huh, Sungjun, Kim, Insu
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Forecast disagreement in the Survey of Professional Forecasters [PDF]
Business Review, 2014 To enact effective policies and spend resources efficiently, firms, policymakers, and markets need accurate economic forecasts. But even though economists generally work with similar models and data, their projections often range widely. To better understand why, Keith Sill explores what the evidence and theories say about how forecasters form their ...
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Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters [PDF]
, 1993 Forecasts play a crucial role in the economy. Businesses won\u27t hire workers as readily if they think the economy may go into a recession soon. Long-term interest rates will rise if people in the financial markets expect inflation to increase.
Croushore, Dean D.
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