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The ECB's survey of professional forecasters and financial market volatility in the euro area
Applied Economics Letters, 2010Since 1999, the European Central Bank (ECB) conducts a quarterly survey of the economic outlook in the euro area among professional forecasters. This article investigates the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty, measured as the dispersion in economic forecasts across survey participants, and financial market volatility. We find a significant
Arnold, Ivo, Glasbeek, MA (Michiel)
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2023
Probabilistic surveys on macroeconomic variables provide a wealth of information to the applied researcher. Extracting and using this information is not a trivial task, however. This chapter discusses the challenges involved in this task and the approaches used so far in the literature for conducting inference on probabilistic surveys. It also provides
Bassetti F., Casarin R., Del Negro M.
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Probabilistic surveys on macroeconomic variables provide a wealth of information to the applied researcher. Extracting and using this information is not a trivial task, however. This chapter discusses the challenges involved in this task and the approaches used so far in the literature for conducting inference on probabilistic surveys. It also provides
Bassetti F., Casarin R., Del Negro M.
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2006
We ask whether the di§erent types of forecasts made by individual survey respondents are mutually consistent, using the SPF survey data. We compare the point forecasts and central tendencies of probability distributions matched by individual respondent, and compare the forecast probabilities of declines in output with the probabilities implied by the ...
Clements, Michael P. +1 more
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We ask whether the di§erent types of forecasts made by individual survey respondents are mutually consistent, using the SPF survey data. We compare the point forecasts and central tendencies of probability distributions matched by individual respondent, and compare the forecast probabilities of declines in output with the probabilities implied by the ...
Clements, Michael P. +1 more
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International Advances in Economic Research, 2018
M. C. Ramos-Herrera +1 more
semanticscholar +2 more sources
M. C. Ramos-Herrera +1 more
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Surveying Professional Forecasters
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017Yael Grushka-Cockayne +1 more
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Measuring economic uncertainty using the Survey of Professional Forecasters [PDF]
, 2012 Uncertainty about how the economy will evolve is a key concern for households and firms. People’s views on how likely it is that the economy will be growing, stagnating, or in recession help shape the actions they take today. Consequently, how households and firms respond to uncertainty has implications for economic activity.
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Results of a special questionnaire for participants in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) [PDF]
, 2009 This document provides a summary of the aggregate results of a special questionnaire which was sent to the participants in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) in autumn 2008, in the context of the ten-year anniversary of the SPF’s launch in January 1999.
Meyler, Aidan, Rubene, Ieva
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Are professional forecasters Bayesian?
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2021Sebastiano Manzan
exaly
Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2009Charles F Manski, Jared Williams
exaly
What do professional forecasters actually predict?
International Journal of Forecasting, 2018Didier Nibbering
exaly