How tropical Pacific surface cooling contributed to accelerated sea ice melt from 2007 to 2012 as ice is thinned by anthropogenic forcing [PDF]
, 2019 Over the past 40 years the Arctic sea ice minimum in September has declined. The period between 2007 and 2012 showed accelerated melt contributed to the record minima of 2007 and 2012.
Baxter, Ian
core
Southern African summer-rainfall variability, and its teleconnections, on interannual to interdecadal timescales in CMIP5 models [PDF]
, 2019 23 pagesInternational audienceThis study provides the first assessment of CMIP5 model performances in simulating southern Africa (SA) rainfall variability in austral summer (Nov–Feb), and its teleconnections with large-scale climate variability at ...
Cretat, Julien +7 more
core +2 more sources
An opportunity index to anticipate when subseasonal predictions are useful
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.Simultaneously active subseasonal windows of forecast opportunity can be combined into a single opportunity index, which can be used operationally to anticipate enhanced or reduced subseasonal prediction skill. For predictions of temperature anomalies in Switzerland during summer—a region and season with particularly low predictability—skill can nearly
Dominik Büeler +4 more
wiley +1 more source
A Python diagnostics package for evaluation of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) teleconnections in subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast systems [PDF]
Geoscientific Model DevelopmentThe Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) teleconnections diagnostics package is an open-source Python software package that provides process-level evaluation of MJO teleconnections predicted by subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast systems.
C. Stan +9 more
doaj +1 more source
Intensity dependence of El Niño and La Niña evolution and mixed‐layer heat‐budget processes
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intensity modulates the spatial, temporal, and dynamical evolution of events strongly. El Niño SST anomalies shift westward with decreasing intensity, while La Niña anomalies remain spatially fixed. Stronger events initiate earlier and persist longer than weak events.
Parya Adibi +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2017 WTG balance is used to examine how changes in the moist thermodynamic structure of the tropics affect the MJO in two simulations of the Superparameterized Community Earth System Model (SP‐CESM), one at preindustrial (PI) levels of CO2 and one where CO2 ...
Brandon O. Wolding +3 more
doaj +1 more source
Diagnosing the 11‐year solar cycle's influence on the East Atlantic pattern
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.A previously unidentified solar‐cycle response in the East Atlantic pattern is found in late winter at lag +3 years with larger amplitude than the NAO response. A statistically significant NAO response to the solar cycle is seen in late winter at lag 0 years.
Stergios Misios +4 more
wiley +1 more source
Contrasting the synoptic drivers of the UK heatwaves of 1976, 2003, 2018 and 2022
Weather, EarlyView.UK summer heatwaves are dictated by the polar jet stream position and sea surface temperature (SST) variability, affecting the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) index. The SNAO can determine and influence the Central England Precipitation (CEP) and Central England Temperature (CET).
Nedim Sladić +4 more
wiley +1 more source
Errors in climate model daily precipitation and temperature output: time invariance and implications for bias correction [PDF]
, 2013 When correcting for biases in general circulation model (GCM) output, for example when statistically downscaling for regional and local impacts studies, a common assumption is that the GCM biases can be characterized by comparing model simulations and ...
Cayan, Daniel R. +2 more
core +3 more sources
Boreas, EarlyView.The relationship between the climate and societal transformation in Maya lowlands has long been debated, particularly the role of drought in shaping the civilization trajectory during the Classic Period. A high‐resolution, multi‐proxy, geochemical record from Lake Kaná, located in the underexplored Uaymil region of the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico ...
Haydar B. Martinez‐Dyrzo +5 more
wiley +1 more source