Results 31 to 40 of about 2,197 (146)

The Distributional Effects of Economic Uncertainty*

International Economic Review, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study the distributional implications of uncertainty shocks by developing a model that links macroeconomic aggregates to the US distribution of earnings and consumption. Our findings suggest that the fraction of low‐earning workers decreases initially, while the share of households reporting low consumption increases.
Florian Huber, Massimiliano Marcellino, Tommaso Tornese   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

A spectral analysis extension to DEMATEL for strategic leverage points identification

International Transactions in Operational Research, EarlyView.
Abstract Efforts to intervene in complex systems often emphasize influential factors, yet system behavior is equally shaped by the relationships among them. Methods such as Decision‐Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) map causal structures but remain descriptive and do not identify which relationships provide the greatest leverage for ...
Pavlos Delias, Kerasia Kalkitsa
wiley   +1 more source

Adaptive Estimation for Weakly Dependent Functional Times Series

Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We propose adaptive mean and autocovariance function estimators for stationary functional time series under 𝕃p−m‐approximability assumptions. These estimators are designed to adapt to the regularity of the curves and to accommodate both sparse and dense data designs.
Hassan Maissoro, Valentin Patilea, Myriam Vimond   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

A Limit Theorem for Discrete Galton-Watson Branching Processes with Immigration [PDF]

Journal of Applied Probability, 2006
We provide a simple set of sufficient conditions for the weak convergence of discrete-time, discrete-state Galton-Watson branching processes with immigration to continuous-time, continuous-state branching processes with immigration.
openaire   +2 more sources

A Note on Local Polynomial Regression for Time Series in Banach Spaces

Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This work extends local polynomial regression to Banach space‐valued time series for estimating smoothly varying means and their derivatives in non‐stationary data. The asymptotic properties of both the standard and bias‐reduced Jackknife estimators are analyzed under mild moment conditions, establishing their convergence rates.
Florian Heinrichs
wiley   +1 more source

On the Existence of One‐Sided Representations for the Generalised Dynamic Factor Model

Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study the Generalised Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) and show that the dynamic common component, that is, the common component of the GDFM, can be expressed using only current and past observations under mild assumptions. Specifically, we require (i) the dynamic common component to be purely non‐deterministic and (ii) the exclusion of ...
Philipp Gersing
wiley   +1 more source

Band‐Pass Filtering With High‐Dimensional Time Series. A Synthetic Indicator of the Medium‐to‐Long Run Component of Growth

Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT The paper deals with the construction of a synthetic indicator of economic growth, obtained by projecting a quarterly measure of aggregate economic activity, namely gross domestic product (GDP), into the space spanned by a finite number of smooth principal components, representative of the medium‐to‐long‐run component of economic growth of a ...
Alessandro Giovannelli, Marco Lippi, Tommaso Proietti   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Multiple Chains Markov Switching Vector Autoregression

Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Both the U.S. stock and bond returns exhibit distinct Markovian regimes. However, because these regimes display limited coherence, conventional models typically require highly parameterized systems to adequately capture their joint distribution.
Leopoldo Catania
wiley   +1 more source

Estimation of the Intercept Parameter in Integrated Galton–Watson Processes

Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study the estimation of the intercept parameter in an integrated Galton–Watson process, an important building block for many count‐valued time series models. In this unit root setting, the ordinary least squares estimator is known to be inconsistent, whereas the existing weighted least squares (WLS) estimator is consistent only in the case ...
Yang Lu
wiley   +1 more source

Sparse Causal Dynamic Linear Regression

Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We develop a sparse causal dynamic regression framework for long multivariate time series. With very long time series, the potentially large number of lags and leads in a dynamic regression model often makes time‐domain estimation numerically unstable or intractable.
Rui Huang, Kung‐Sik Chan
wiley   +1 more source