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Etymologia: Bayesian Probability [PDF]

open access: yesEmerging Infectious Diseases, 2017
Ronnie Henry, Martin I. Meltzer
doaj   +5 more sources

Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions. [PDF]

open access: yesPLoS ONE, 2018
An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique.
Ryo Tamura, Koji Hukushima
doaj   +7 more sources

Probability biases as Bayesian inference [PDF]

open access: yesJudgment and Decision Making, 2006
In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them.
André C. R. Martins
doaj   +4 more sources

Bayesian Decision Theory and Stochastic Independence [PDF]

open access: yesElectronic Proceedings in Theoretical Computer Science, 2017
Stochastic independence has a complex status in probability theory. It is not part of the definition of a probability measure, but it is nonetheless an essential property for the mathematical development of this theory.
Philippe Mongin
doaj   +5 more sources

Application and verification of probabilistic precipitation forecasting in Haihe River Basin based on ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

open access: yes暴雨灾害, 2021
Using the historical precipitation observation data in the Haihe River Basin and the ECMWF ensemble prediction, the 289 grid points in the Haihe River Basin are modeled with Bayesian Processor of Output (BPO), which revise the determine precipitation ...
Shu XU, Mingming XIONG, Fajing CHEN
doaj   +1 more source

The research on Bayesian inference for geophysical inversion

open access: yes地球与行星物理论评, 2022
Based on statistical theory, the Bayesian inversion method adopts the posterior probability distribution to evaluate the model parameters under the constraints of prior information and observation data.
Xingda Jiang, Wei Zhang, Hui Yang
doaj   +1 more source

A Probability-based Evolutionary Algorithm with Mutations to Learn Bayesian Networks [PDF]

open access: yesInternational Journal of Interactive Multimedia and Artificial Intelligence, 2014
Bayesian networks are regarded as one of the essential tools to analyze causal relationship between events from data. To learn the structure of highly-reliable Bayesian networks from data as quickly as possible is one of the important problems that ...
Sho Fukuda   +2 more
doaj   +1 more source

The Bayesian sampler : generic Bayesian inference causes incoherence in human probability [PDF]

open access: yes, 2020
Human probability judgments are systematically biased, in apparent tension with Bayesian models of cognition. But perhaps the brain does not represent probabilities explicitly, but approximates probabilistic calculations through a process of sampling, as
Chater, Nick   +2 more
core   +1 more source

Objective and Subjective Solomonoff Probabilities in Quantum Mechanics [PDF]

open access: yesElectronic Proceedings in Theoretical Computer Science, 2018
Algorithmic probability has shown some promise in dealing with the probability problem in the Everett interpretation, since it provides an objective, single-case probability measure.
Allan F. Randall
doaj   +1 more source

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