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The psychology of Bayesian reasoning [PDF]
Frontiers in Psychology, 2014 Most psychological research on Bayesian reasoning since the 1970s has used a type of problem that tests a certain kind of statistical reasoning performance. The subject is given statistical facts within a hypothetical scenario. Those facts include a base-rate statistic and one or two diagnostic probabilities.
David R. Mandel
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Bayesian Reasoning with Trained Neural Networks [PDF]
Entropy, 2021 We showed how to use trained neural networks to perform Bayesian reasoning in order to solve tasks outside their initial scope. Deep generative models provide prior knowledge, and classification/regression networks impose constraints. The tasks at hand were formulated as Bayesian inference problems, which we approximately solved through variational or ...
Jakob Knollmüller, Torsten A. Enßlin
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Indirect reciprocity with Bayesian reasoning and biases
PLOS Computational Biology, 2023 Reputations can foster cooperation by indirect reciprocity: if I am good to you then others will be good to me. But this mechanism for cooperation in one-shot interactions only works when people agree on who is good and who is bad. Errors in actions or assessments can produce disagreements about reputations, which can unravel the positive feedback loop
Bryce Morsky +2 more
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Prognostic Modelling with Dynamic Bayesian Networks [PDF]
, 2009 In this paper, we review the application of dynamic Bayesian networks to prognostic modelling. An example is provided for illustration. With this example, we show how the equipment’s reliability decays over time in the situation where repair is not ...
McNaught, Ken R., Zagorecki, A.
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Designing Visualisations for Bayesian Problems According to Multimedia Principles
Education Sciences, 2022 Questions involving Bayesian Reasoning often arise in events of everyday life, such as assessing the results of a breathalyser test or a medical diagnostic test. Bayesian Reasoning is perceived to be difficult, but visualisations are known to support it.
Theresa Büchter +6 more
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Beliefs and Bayesian reasoning [PDF]
Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 2016 We examine whether judgments of posterior probabilities in Bayesian reasoning problems are affected by reasoners' beliefs about corresponding real-world probabilities. In an internet-based task, participants were asked to determine the probability that a hypothesis is true (posterior probability, e.g., a person has a disease, given a positive medical ...
Andrew L, Cohen +2 more
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The Three Prisoners Problem Revisited: issues in the use of Bayesian networks for security applications [PDF]
, 2008 Bayesian networks are a type of causal network used for probabilistic reasoning, which have found wide application in biomedical environments and machine vision.We have considered their application in the realm of security, where behaviour that is ...
Pickering, Jonathan, Xu, Zhijie
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Interpreting Dynamical Systems as Bayesian Reasoners [PDF]
, 2021 11 pages + 26 pages appendix, to be published in the proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Active Inference ...
Nathaniel Virgo +2 more
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Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2009 Previous research has demonstrated that Bayesian reasoning performance is improved if uncertainty information is presented as natural frequencies rather than single-event probabilities. A questionnaire study of 342 college students replicated this effect
Gretchen B. Chapman, Jingjing Liu
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Bayesian reasoning in science [PDF]
Nature, 1991 Bayesian scientific reasoning has a sound foundation in logic and provides a unified approach to the evaluation of deterministic and statistical theories, unlike its main rivals.
Colin Howson, Peter Urbach
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