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Introduction to dynamic belief elicitation
ACM SIGecom Exchanges, 2015We present a protocol for eliciting dynamic beliefs from forecasters. At time t = 0, forecasters hold beliefs about a random variable of interest that will realize publicly at time t = 1. Between t = 0 and t = 1, forecasters observe private ...
Christopher P. Chambers +1 more
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Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2021Abstract Expectations are a critical factor in determining actions in a great variety of economic interactions. Hence, being able to measure beliefs is important in many economic environments. In this article, we review the approaches that have been used to measure beliefs and make comparisons of their effectiveness.
Gary Charness +2 more
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Belief Elicitation: A User's Guide
Handbook of Experimental MethodologyPaul J. Healy
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Belief Elicitation in the Laboratory
Annual Review of Economics, 2014One constraint we face as economists is not being able to observe all the relevant variables required to test our theories or make policy prescriptions. Laboratory techniques allow us to convert many variables (such as beliefs) that are unobservable in the field into observables. This article presents a survey of the literature on belief elicitation in
Andrew Schotter, Isabel Trevino
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An Experimental Comparison of Induced and Elicited Beliefs
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2005zbMATH Open Web Interface contents unavailable due to conflicting licenses.
Hurley, Terrance M., Shogren, Jason F.
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Belief Elicitation in Portfolio Optimization
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2016An investor has a risk preference with an expected utility representation that is strongly monotone in wealth. He chooses an expected utility maximizing portfolio among a finite set of assets with random return profile. We show that for every risk preference there exists a compensation scheme, making positive payments depending on the portfolio and ...
Itai Arieli, Manuel Mueller-Frank
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017
Does the mere exposure of a subject to a belief elicitation task affect the very same beliefs that we are trying to elicit? Is it theoretically possible to guarantee that this will not be the case? In this paper, we introduce mechanisms that make it simultaneously strictly dominant for the subject (a) not to acquire any information that could ...
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Does the mere exposure of a subject to a belief elicitation task affect the very same beliefs that we are trying to elicit? Is it theoretically possible to guarantee that this will not be the case? In this paper, we introduce mechanisms that make it simultaneously strictly dominant for the subject (a) not to acquire any information that could ...
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An Experimental Study of Belief Learning Using Elicited Beliefs
Econometrica, 2002This paper investigates belief learning. Unlike other investigators who have been forced to use observable proxies to approximate unobserved beliefs, we have, using a belief elicitation procedure (proper scoring rule), elicited subject beliefs directly.
Yaw Nyarko, Andrew Schotter
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Relieving the elicitation burden of Bayesian Belief Networks. [PDF]
, 2008 In this paper we present a new method(EBBN) that aims at reducing the need toelicit formidable amounts of probabilities forBayesian belief networks, by reducing thenumber of probabilities that need to be specified in the quantification phase. This methodenables the derivation of a variable’s conditional probability table (CPT) in the general case that ...
Wisse, B.W. +3 more
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Different methods elicit different belief distributions.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General<p>When eliciting people’s forecasts or beliefs, you can ask for a point estimate – e.g., what is the most likely state of the world? – or you can ask for an entire distribution of beliefs – e.g., how likely is every possible state of the world? Eliciting belief distributions potentially yields more information, and researchers have increasingly ...
Beidi Hu, Joseph P. Simmons
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