Results 241 to 250 of about 10,228 (279)

An N-state Markov-chain mixture distribution model of the clear-sky index [PDF]

open access: yesSolar Energy, 2018
Abstract This paper presents an N-state Markov-chain mixture distribution approach to model the clear-sky index. The model is based on dividing the clear-sky index data into bins of magnitude and determining probabilities for transitions between bins. These transition probabilities are then used to define a Markov-chain, which in turn is connected to
Joakim Munkhammar, Joakim Widen
exaly   +3 more sources

A spatiotemporal Markov-chain mixture distribution model of the clear-sky index [PDF]

open access: yesSolar Energy, 2019
Abstract This study presents a spatiotemporal Markov-chain mixture distribution model of the clear-sky index for an arbitrary number of locations, and is particularly suited for simulations of small-scale spatial networks with a span of 10 km or less.
Joakim Munkhammar, Joakim Widen
exaly   +3 more sources

An autocorrelation-based copula model for generating realistic clear-sky index time-series [PDF]

open access: yesSolar Energy, 2017
Abstract This study presents a method for using copulas to model the temporal variability of the clear-sky index, which in turn can be used to produce realistic time-series of photovoltaic power generation. The method utilizes the autocorrelation function of a clear-sky index time-series, and based on that a correlation matrix is set up for the ...
Joakim Munkhammar, Joakim Widen
exaly   +3 more sources

A Markov-chain probability distribution mixture approach to the clear-sky index [PDF]

open access: yesSolar Energy, 2018
Abstract This paper presents a Markov-chain probability distribution mixture approach to the clear-sky index (CSI). The main assumption is that the temporal variability of the state of clear and the state of cloudy can be described by a two-state Markov-chain, and the variability within each state can be approximated by a probability distribution ...
Joakim Munkhammar, Joakim Widen
exaly   +3 more sources

On the properties of aggregate clear-sky index distributions and an improved model for spatially correlated instantaneous solar irradiance [PDF]

open access: yesSolar Energy, 2017
Abstract An important factor in grid integration of solar power is the so-called dispersion-smoothing effect, i.e., that differences in cloudiness over dispersed systems make the aggregate output less variable. This effect has been studied for irradiance step-changes on different time horizons, but not so much for instantaneous irradiance.
Mahmoud Shepero   +2 more
exaly   +3 more sources

An autocorrelation-based copula model for producing realistic clear-sky index and photovoltaic power generation time-series [PDF]

open access: yes2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC), 2017
This study presents a method for using copulas to model the temporal variability of the clear-sky index. The method utilizes the autocorrelation function and correlated outputs for $N$ time-steps are obtained. Results from the copula model are, in terms of distribution, autocorrelation, step changes and mean daily distribution, compared with the ...
Joakim Munkhammar, Joakim Widen
exaly   +3 more sources

Probabilistic forecasting of high-resolution clear-sky index time-series using a Markov-chain mixture distribution model [PDF]

open access: yesSolar Energy, 2019
Abstract This study presents a Markov-chain mixture (MCM) distribution model for forecasting the clear-sky index—normalized global horizontal irradiance. The model is presented in general, but applied to, and tested on, minute resolution clear-sky index data for the two different climatic regions of Norrkoping, Sweden, and Hawaii, USA.
Dennis Van Der Meer   +2 more
exaly   +3 more sources

Probabilistic clear-sky index forecasts using Gaussian process ensembles [PDF]

open access: yes2018 IEEE 7th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (WCPEC) (A Joint Conference of 45th IEEE PVSC, 28th PVSEC & 34th EU PVSEC), 2018
In this paper, we investigate the performance of ensembles of Gaussian processes (GPs) to provide more accurate probabilistic forecasts of the clear-sky index (CSI), based on data from a network of pyranometers on Hawaii. This idea follows from the multiple-state model of the CSI in which its probability density can be represented as a combination of ...
Dennis van der Meer   +2 more
openaire   +2 more sources

Simulating clear-sky index increment correlations under mixed sky conditions using a fractal cloud model

Solar Energy, 2017
Abstract Modelling clear-sky index increments (i.e. changes in normalized surface irradiance over specified intervals of time) and their spatial autocorrelation structures is important for the reliable grid integration of photovoltaic power systems.
Gerald M Lohmann   +2 more
exaly   +2 more sources

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