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Forecasting Costa Rican inflation with machine learning methods
Latin American Journal of Central Banking, 2020 We present a first assessment of the predictive ability of machine learning methods for inflation forecasting in Costa Rica. We compute forecasts using two variants of k-nearest neighbors, random forests, extreme gradient boosting and a long short-term ...
Adolfo Rodríguez-Vargas
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Acta Scientiarum: Technology, 2019 Over the years, several studies that compare individual forecasts with the combination of forecasts were published. There is, however, no unanimity in the conclusions. Furthermore, methods of combination by regression are poorly explored.
Aline Castello Branco Mancuso +1 more
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Technical note: Combining quantile forecasts and predictive distributions of streamflows [PDF]
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2017 The enhanced availability of many different hydro-meteorological modelling and forecasting systems raises the issue of how to optimally combine this great deal of information.
K. Bogner, K. Liechti, M. Zappa
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Forecasting droughts in East Africa [PDF]
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2014 The humanitarian crises caused by the recent droughts (2008–2009 and 2010–2011) in East Africa have illustrated that the ability to make accurate drought forecasts with sufficient lead time is essential. The use of dynamical model precipitation forecasts
E. Mwangi +4 more
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Improving the sea state forecasts by using local wave observations and the ensembleBMA software
Environmental Data Science, 2023 The main goal of this study is to investigate if the publicly available sea state forecasts for the Aran Islands region in the Republic of Ireland can be improved.
Tatjana Kokina +3 more
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Sensitivity of Weights in Combining Forecasts [PDF]
Operations Research, 1992 In the combination of forecasts, weighted averages that attempt to take into account the accuracy of the forecasts and any dependence among forecasts tend to perform poorly in practice. An important factor influencing this performance is the sensitivity, or instability, of the estimated weights used to generate the combined forecast.
Robert L. Winkler, Robert T. Clemen
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Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs [PDF]
, 2008 This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a large number of countries in the global economy.
Alogoskoufis +25 more
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Harmonization and Verification of Three National European Icing Forecast Models Using Pilot Reports
Advances in Meteorology, 2022 The Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research (SESAR) program aims at modernizing and harmonizing the European airspace, which currently has a strongly fragmented character.
Christoph Knigge +4 more
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The combination of the economic forecasts using expert information
Статистика и экономика, 2019 Purpose of the study. The aim of this work is to consider the possibility of using expert information when combining forecasts as an additional factor in improving the accuracy of economic forecasting.
A. A. Surkov
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Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data [PDF]
, 2007 This paper studies a procedure to combine individual forecasts that achieve theoretical optimal performance. The results apply to a wide variety of loss functions and no conditions are imposed on the data sequences and the individual forecasts apart from
Sancetta, Alessio
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