Results 11 to 20 of about 14,321 (300)
Probabilistic, Multi‐Sensor Eruption Forecasting
Geophysical Research LettersWe developed an eruption forecasting model using data from multiple sensors or data streams with the Bayesian network method. The model generates probabilistic forecasts that are interpretable and resilient against sensor outage.
Y. Behr, A. Christophersen, C. Miller
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Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment [PDF]
We introduce the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE), a real-time initiative designed to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physics-based framework. The experiment is inspired by the Financial Bubble Experiment, adapting its principles of digital authentication, timestamped archiving, and delayed ...
Lei, Qinghua +5 more
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Jerk, a promising tool for early warning of volcanic eruptions [PDF]
Nature CommunicationsForecasting volcanic eruptions remains a great civil defense challenge in many parts of the world. Although instrumental monitoring networks provide a variety of signals interpretable as eruption precursors, volcano observatories still lack a systemic ...
François Beauducel +6 more
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Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions: Beyond the Failure Forecast Method [PDF]
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2018 Volcano-tectonic seismicity and ground movement are the most reliable precursors to eruptions after extended intervals of repose, as well as to flank eruptions from frequently active volcanoes. Their behavior is consistent with elastic-brittle failure of the crust before a new pathway is opened to allow magma ascent.
Christopher R. J. Kilburn
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Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions [PDF]
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2020 Forecasting natural events such as landslides, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions is a difficult problem compounded by conflicting expectations. Society wants accurate warnings of these events, yet the scientific com munity is not able to provide forecasts as accurate as desired because these natural events are only partly understood.
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Editorial: Towards Improved Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions [PDF]
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2020 Corentin Caudron +4 more
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Intra-eruption forecasting [PDF]
Bulletin of Volcanology, 2019 Forecasting eruption onsets has received much attention, in both the short and long term. However, an eruption is not easily reduced to an instant in time, and forecasting what happens after eruption onset has received little attention. Any useful definition of an eruption has to allow for activity over scales ranging from days to decades, and can do ...
Mark S. Bebbington, Susanna F. Jenkins
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A physics-based source model for real-time tephra-dispersal forecasting for weak eruption plumes
Journal of Applied Volcanology, 2022 A physics-based model to estimate source conditions for a tephra-dispersal model is developed. The source condition is generally expressed by a distribution of released particles along an eruption plume (referred to as “source magnitude distribution” SMD)
Kensuke Ishii +3 more
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Forecasting Eruptions at Poorly Known Volcanoes Using Analogs and Multivariate Renewal Processes
Geophysical Research Letters, 2022 Forecasting future destructive eruptions from re‐awakening volcanoes remains a challenge, mainly due to a lack of previous event data. This sparks a search for similar volcanoes to provide additional information, especially those with better compiled and
Ting Wang +3 more
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Forecasting eruptions from long-quiescent volcanoes [PDF]
Bulletin of Volcanology, 2022 AbstractForecasts of eruption are uncertain. The uncertainty is amplified when volcanoes reawaken after several generations in repose, because direct evidence of previous behaviour is rarely available. It fosters scepticism about warnings of volcanic activity and may compromise the success of emergency procedures.
Christopher R. J. Kilburn +1 more
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