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Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment [PDF]
We introduce the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE), a real-time initiative designed to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physics-based framework. The experiment is inspired by the Financial Bubble Experiment, adapting its principles of digital authentication, timestamped archiving, and delayed ...
Lei, Qinghua +5 more
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Jerk, a promising tool for early warning of volcanic eruptions [PDF]
Nature CommunicationsForecasting volcanic eruptions remains a great civil defense challenge in many parts of the world. Although instrumental monitoring networks provide a variety of signals interpretable as eruption precursors, volcano observatories still lack a systemic ...
François Beauducel +6 more
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Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions [PDF]
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2020 Forecasting natural events such as landslides, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions is a difficult problem compounded by conflicting expectations. Society wants accurate warnings of these events, yet the scientific com munity is not able to provide forecasts as accurate as desired because these natural events are only partly understood.
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Intra-eruption forecasting [PDF]
Bulletin of Volcanology, 2019 Forecasting eruption onsets has received much attention, in both the short and long term. However, an eruption is not easily reduced to an instant in time, and forecasting what happens after eruption onset has received little attention. Any useful definition of an eruption has to allow for activity over scales ranging from days to decades, and can do ...
Mark S. Bebbington, Susanna F. Jenkins
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A physics-based source model for real-time tephra-dispersal forecasting for weak eruption plumes
Journal of Applied Volcanology, 2022 A physics-based model to estimate source conditions for a tephra-dispersal model is developed. The source condition is generally expressed by a distribution of released particles along an eruption plume (referred to as “source magnitude distribution” SMD)
Kensuke Ishii +3 more
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Editorial: Towards Improved Forecasting of Volcanic Eruptions [PDF]
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2020 Corentin Caudron +4 more
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Forecasting Eruptions at Poorly Known Volcanoes Using Analogs and Multivariate Renewal Processes
Geophysical Research Letters, 2022 Forecasting future destructive eruptions from re‐awakening volcanoes remains a challenge, mainly due to a lack of previous event data. This sparks a search for similar volcanoes to provide additional information, especially those with better compiled and
Ting Wang +3 more
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Forecasting eruptions from long-quiescent volcanoes [PDF]
Bulletin of Volcanology, 2022 AbstractForecasts of eruption are uncertain. The uncertainty is amplified when volcanoes reawaken after several generations in repose, because direct evidence of previous behaviour is rarely available. It fosters scepticism about warnings of volcanic activity and may compromise the success of emergency procedures.
Christopher R. J. Kilburn +1 more
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How big will the next eruption be?
Journal of Applied Volcanology, 2022 Anticipating the size of the next volcanic eruption in long-term forecasts is a major problem in both basic and applied volcanology. In this study, we investigate the extent to which eruption size is predictable based on historical and other attribute ...
Paul Colosi, Emily E. Brodsky
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The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting
Nature Communications, 2020 The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaiʻi in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in ...
M. R. Patrick +7 more
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