Probabilistic, Multi‐Sensor Eruption Forecasting
Geophysical Research LettersWe developed an eruption forecasting model using data from multiple sensors or data streams with the Bayesian network method. The model generates probabilistic forecasts that are interpretable and resilient against sensor outage.
Y. Behr, A. Christophersen, C. Miller
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Defining the Pre-Eruptive States of Active Volcanoes for Improving Eruption Forecasting [PDF]
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2022 A crucial feature to manage a volcanic crisis is the ability of volcanologists to promptly detect an impending eruption. This is often affected by significant uncertainty, mainly for the difficulty in interpreting the monitoring signals in terms of the ...
M. Rosi +7 more
semanticscholar +3 more sources
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2022 Auckland, a city of 1.6 million people, is situated atop the active monogenetic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). Thus, short-term eruption forecasting is critical to support crisis management in a future event, especially to inform decisions such as ...
Alec J. Wild +2 more
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Intra-eruption forecasting [PDF]
Bulletin of Volcanology, 2019 Forecasting eruption onsets has received much attention, in both the short and long term. However, an eruption is not easily reduced to an instant in time, and forecasting what happens after eruption onset has received little attention.
M. Bebbington, S. Jenkins
semanticscholar +4 more sources
Probabilistic enhancement of the Failure Forecast Method using a stochastic differential equation and application to volcanic eruption forecasts [PDF]
, 2018 We introduce a doubly stochastic method for performing material failure theory based forecasts of volcanic eruptions. The method enhances the well known Failure Forecast Method equation, introducing a new formulation similar to the Hull-White model in ...
Bevilacqua, Andrea +5 more
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Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013-14 [PDF]
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2019 Eruptions of Sinabung volcano, Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a ...
2013 VDAP team +10 more
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Forecasting mechanical failure and the 26 June 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos, Ecuador. [PDF]
Sci Adv, 2022 Using recent advancements in high-performance computing data assimilation to combine satellite InSAR data with numerical models, the prolonged unrest of the Sierra Negra volcano in the Galápagos was tracked to provide a fortuitous, but successful ...
Gregg PM +6 more
europepmc +2 more sources
Evaluating the assimilation of S5P/TROPOMI near real-time SO<sub>2</sub> columns and layer height data into the CAMS integrated forecasting system (CY47R1), based on a case study of the 2019 Raikoke eruption [PDF]
Geoscientific Model Development, 2022 . The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission, provides daily analyses and 5 d forecasts of atmospheric composition, including forecasts of ...
Antje Inness +8 more
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Journal of Geography (Chigaku Zasshi), 2021 ― Abstract Volcanoes with shallow hydrothermal systems are often accompanied by background volcanic activity such as fumarolic activity, microseismicity, and ground deformation even in the non-eruptive phase. When elevated, they are said to be in a state
Takeshi Hashimoto
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Top–Down Precursory Volcanic Seismicity: Implications for ‘Stealth’ Magma Ascent and Long-Term Eruption Forecasting [PDF]
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2018 Volcanic eruptions occur when a conduit forms to connect a crustal magma reservoir to Earth’s surface. Conduit formation is generally assumed to be a ‘bottom-up’ process and a major driver of precursory volcanic seismicity, which is the most commonly ...
Diana C. Roman, K. V. Cashman
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