Results 21 to 30 of about 1,142 (253)
How big will the next eruption be?
Journal of Applied Volcanology, 2022 Anticipating the size of the next volcanic eruption in long-term forecasts is a major problem in both basic and applied volcanology. In this study, we investigate the extent to which eruption size is predictable based on historical and other attribute ...
Paul Colosi, Emily E. Brodsky
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The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting
Nature Communications, 2020 The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaiʻi in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in ...
M. R. Patrick +7 more
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Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 2022 Axial Seamount is a basaltic hot spot volcano with a summit caldera at a depth of ∼1,500 m below sea level, superimposed on the Juan de Fuca spreading ridge, giving it a robust and continuous magma supply.
William W. Chadwick Jr. +5 more
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Alaska Volcano Observatory Alert and Forecasting Timeliness: 1989–2017
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2018 The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) monitors volcanoes in Alaska and issues notifications and warnings of volcanic unrest and eruption. We evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of eruption forecasts for 53 eruptions at 20 volcanoes, beginning with Mount ...
Cheryl E. Cameron +5 more
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Volcanic Risk Mitigation that Could Have Been Derailed but Wasn’t: Pinatubo, Philippines 1991
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2021 This is the story of a successful risk mitigation effort at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 that could easily have failed. The counterfactuals are the myriad of ways that the effort could have failed but didn’t.
Chris Newhall
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Frontiers in Earth Science, 2018 Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that provide a robust and flexible framework for understanding complex systems. Limited case studies have demonstrated the potential of BNs in modeling multiple data streams for eruption ...
Annemarie Christophersen +6 more
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Inclusion of ash and SO2 emissions from volcanic eruptions in WRF-Chem: development and some applications [PDF]
Geoscientific Model Development, 2013 We describe a new functionality within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with coupled Chemistry (WRF-Chem) that allows simulating emission, transport, dispersion, transformation and sedimentation of pollutants released during volcanic ...
M. Stuefer +6 more
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Application of BET_EF at Mount Etna: a retrospective analysis (years 2001-2005)
Annals of Geophysics, 2011 Advances in volcano monitoring and forecasting need a multidisciplinary collaborative framework. In light of this, a Bayesian Event Tree (BET) approach was performed by the application of the BET for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) code to analyze the ...
Jacopo Selva +19 more
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Frontiers in Earth Science, 2021 In 2017, Mount Agung produced a small (VEI 2) eruption that was preceded by an energetic volcano-tectonic (VT) swarm (>800 earthquakes per day up to M4.9) and two months of declining activity.
John J. Wellik +2 more
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Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus under strict social restrictions
Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, EarlyView., 2021 We formulate a simple susceptible‐infectious‐recovery (SIR) model to describe the spread of the coronavirus under strict social restrictions. The transmission rate in this model is exponentially decreasing with time. We find a formula for basic reproduction function and estimate the maximum number of daily infected individuals.
Mo'tassem Al‐arydah +3 more
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