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The flare likelihood and region eruption forecasting (FLARECAST) project: flare forecasting in the big data & machine learning era [PDF]
Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 2021 The European Union funded the FLARECAST project, that ran from January 2015 until February 2018. FLARECAST had a research-to-operations (R2O) focus, and accordingly introduced several innovations into the discipline of solar flare forecasting.
M. Georgoulis +27 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Defining the Pre-Eruptive States of Active Volcanoes for Improving Eruption Forecasting
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2022 A crucial feature to manage a volcanic crisis is the ability of volcanologists to promptly detect an impending eruption. This is often affected by significant uncertainty, mainly for the difficulty in interpreting the monitoring signals in terms of the ...
M. Rosi +7 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Nature Geoscience, 2008 Florent Brenguier, Valerie Ferrazzini and their colleagues braved tropical cyclones and crater collapses while recording continuous seismological data on the Piton de la Foumaise volcano.
Brenguier, F., Ferrazzini, V.
openaire +4 more sources
Evaluation of short-term probabilistic eruption forecasting at Whakaari, New Zealand
Bulletin of Volcanology, 2022 Phreatic explosions at volcanoes are difficult to forecast but can be locally devastating, as illustrated by the deadly 2019 Whakaari (New Zealand) eruption.
D. Dempsey +7 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
A physics-based source model for real-time tephra-dispersal forecasting for weak eruption plumes
Journal of Applied Volcanology, 2022 A physics-based model to estimate source conditions for a tephra-dispersal model is developed. The source condition is generally expressed by a distribution of released particles along an eruption plume (referred to as “source magnitude distribution” SMD)
Kensuke Ishii +3 more
doaj +1 more source
Forecasting Eruptions at Poorly Known Volcanoes Using Analogs and Multivariate Renewal Processes
Geophysical Research Letters, 2022 Forecasting future destructive eruptions from re‐awakening volcanoes remains a challenge, mainly due to a lack of previous event data. This sparks a search for similar volcanoes to provide additional information, especially those with better compiled and
Ting Wang +3 more
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Forecasting eruptions from long-quiescent volcanoes [PDF]
Bulletin of Volcanology, 2022 AbstractForecasts of eruption are uncertain. The uncertainty is amplified when volcanoes reawaken after several generations in repose, because direct evidence of previous behaviour is rarely available. It fosters scepticism about warnings of volcanic activity and may compromise the success of emergency procedures.
Christopher R. J. Kilburn +1 more
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How big will the next eruption be?
Journal of Applied Volcanology, 2022 Anticipating the size of the next volcanic eruption in long-term forecasts is a major problem in both basic and applied volcanology. In this study, we investigate the extent to which eruption size is predictable based on historical and other attribute ...
Paul Colosi, Emily E. Brodsky
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Journal of Geography (Chigaku Zasshi), 2021 ― Abstract Volcanoes with shallow hydrothermal systems are often accompanied by background volcanic activity such as fumarolic activity, microseismicity, and ground deformation even in the non-eruptive phase. When elevated, they are said to be in a state
T. Hashimoto
semanticscholar +1 more source
Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 2022 Axial Seamount is a basaltic hot spot volcano with a summit caldera at a depth of ∼1,500 m below sea level, superimposed on the Juan de Fuca spreading ridge, giving it a robust and continuous magma supply.
William W. Chadwick Jr. +5 more
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