Results 11 to 20 of about 908,181 (301)

Volcanic Precursor Revealed by Machine Learning Offers New Eruption Forecasting Capability

Geophysical Research Letters
Seismicity at active volcanoes provides crucial constraints on the dynamics of magma systems and complex fault activation processes preceding and during an eruption.
Kaiwen Wang, Felix Waldhauser, Maya Tolstoy, David Schaff, Theresa Sawi, William S. D. Wilcock, Yen Joe Tan   +6 more
doaj   +3 more sources

Probabilistic, Multi‐Sensor Eruption Forecasting

Geophysical Research Letters
We developed an eruption forecasting model using data from multiple sensors or data streams with the Bayesian network method. The model generates probabilistic forecasts that are interpretable and resilient against sensor outage.
Y. Behr, A. Christophersen, C. Miller
doaj   +4 more sources

Evaluation of short-term probabilistic eruption forecasting at Whakaari, New Zealand

Bulletin of Volcanology, 2022
Phreatic explosions at volcanoes are difficult to forecast but can be locally devastating, as illustrated by the deadly 2019 Whakaari (New Zealand) eruption.
D. Dempsey, A. Kempa-Liehr, A. Ardid, A. Li, S. Orenia, J. Singh, A. Tyler, S. Cronin   +7 more
semanticscholar   +3 more sources

The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting

Nature Communications, 2020
The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaiʻi in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in ...
M. R. Patrick, B. F. Houghton, K. R. Anderson, M. P. Poland, E. Montgomery-Brown, I. Johanson, W. Thelen, T. Elias   +7 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Automated Eruption Forecasting at Frequently Active Volcanoes Using Bayesian Networks Learned From Monitoring Data and Expert Elicitation: Application to Mt Ruapehu, Aotearoa, New Zealand

Frontiers in Earth Science, 2022
Volcano observatory best practice recommends using probabilistic methods to forecast eruptions to account for the complex natural processes leading up to an eruption and communicating the inherent uncertainties in appropriate ways. Bayesian networks (BNs)
Annemarie Christophersen, Yannik Behr, Craig Miller   +2 more
doaj   +2 more sources

A process-based model of pre-eruption seismicity patterns and its use for eruption forecasting at dormant stratovolcanoes

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2019
Using long-term data sets, the eruptive size, timing and style can typically be successfully forecast for dormant volcanoes using current monitoring data and knowledge of precursory eruptive patterns.
Randall A White, Wendy Mccausland
exaly   +2 more sources

Hidden patterns in volcanic seismicity: deep learning insights from Mt. Etna’s 2020–2021 activity [PDF]

Scientific Reports
Understanding the temporal evolution of volcanic activity is crucial for eruption forecasting and hazard assessment. We use an unsupervised machine learning method, Deep Embedded Clustering, to classify daily seismic spectrograms of Mount Etna between ...
Waed Abed, Zahra Zali, Mariangela Sciotto, Ornella Cocina, Andrea Cannata, Matteo Picozzi, Patricia Martínez-Garzón, Alessandro Vuan, Angela Saraò, Monica Sugan   +9 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Anticipating volcanic eruptions using rescaled range analysis of volcano-tectonic seismicity [PDF]

Scientific Reports
The possibility of forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a major challenge for the volcanological scientific community. To date, various techniques based on volcano-tectonic seismicity, endogenous gas emission and satellite imagery have been widely ...
Raúl Pérez-López, Carolina Guardiola-Albert, Alicia Felpeto, David Sanz-Mangas, Nahum Méndez-Chazarra, Rafael Abella, Miguel A. Rodríguez-Pascua, Julio López-Gutierrez   +7 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Event trees for eruption forecasting at Campi Flegrei caldera

, 2021
Available studies for Event Trees at the Campi Flegrei caldera are based on the application of the Bayesian Event Tree model for eruption forecasting (BET_EF) and volcanic hazard (BET_VH). In this document we review such studies, which contain full implementation of the probabilistic eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei ...
Doronzo, Domenico, Sandri, Laura, Selva, Jacopo, Di Vito, Mauro Antonio   +3 more
core   +3 more sources

Jerk, a promising tool for early warning of volcanic eruptions [PDF]

Nature Communications
Forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a great civil defense challenge in many parts of the world. Although instrumental monitoring networks provide a variety of signals interpretable as eruption precursors, volcano observatories still lack a systemic ...
François Beauducel, Geneviève Roult, Valérie Ferrazzini, Aline Peltier, Philippe Jousset, Patrice Boissier, Nicolas Villeneuve   +6 more
doaj   +2 more sources