Results 11 to 20 of about 909,118 (306)

Short-Term Eruption Forecasting for Crisis Decision-Support in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

Frontiers in Earth Science, 2022
Auckland, a city of 1.6 million people, is situated atop the active monogenetic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). Thus, short-term eruption forecasting is critical to support crisis management in a future event, especially to inform decisions such as ...
Alec J. Wild, Mark S. Bebbington, Jan M. Lindsay   +2 more
doaj   +4 more sources

A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting [PDF]

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2021
The main purpose of this article is to emphasize the importance of clarifying the probabilistic framework adopted for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting. Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis seek to quantify the deep uncertainties that
W. Marzocchi, J. Selva, T. H. Jordan
doaj   +2 more sources

Bayesian Network Modeling and Expert Elicitation for Probabilistic Eruption Forecasting: Pilot Study for Whakaari/White Island, New Zealand

Frontiers in Earth Science, 2018
Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that provide a robust and flexible framework for understanding complex systems. Limited case studies have demonstrated the potential of BNs in modeling multiple data streams for eruption ...
Annemarie Christophersen, Natalia I. Deligne, Anca M. Hanea, Lauriane Chardot, Nicolas Fournier, Willy P. Aspinall, Willy P. Aspinall   +6 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013-14 [PDF]

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 2019
Eruptions of Sinabung volcano, Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a ...
2013 VDAP team, Agus Budianto, CVGHM event tree team, Heather M. N. Wright, Hendra Gunawan, John S. Pallister, Julia P. Griswold, Maurizio Battaglia, Sofyan Primulyana, Supriyati Andreastuti, Wendy A. McCausland   +10 more
core   +2 more sources

The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting

Nature Communications, 2020
The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaiʻi in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in ...
M. R. Patrick, B. F. Houghton, K. R. Anderson, M. P. Poland, E. Montgomery-Brown, I. Johanson, W. Thelen, T. Elias   +7 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Automated Eruption Forecasting at Frequently Active Volcanoes Using Bayesian Networks Learned From Monitoring Data and Expert Elicitation: Application to Mt Ruapehu, Aotearoa, New Zealand

Frontiers in Earth Science, 2022
Volcano observatory best practice recommends using probabilistic methods to forecast eruptions to account for the complex natural processes leading up to an eruption and communicating the inherent uncertainties in appropriate ways. Bayesian networks (BNs)
Annemarie Christophersen, Yannik Behr, Craig Miller   +2 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Short-Term Forecasting and Detection of Explosions During the 2016–2017 Eruption of Bogoslof Volcano, Alaska

Frontiers in Earth Science, 2018
We describe a multidisciplinary approach to forecast, rapidly detect, and characterize explosive events during the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, a back-arc shallow submarine volcano in Alaska’s Aleutian arc.
Michelle L. Coombs, Aaron G. Wech, Matthew M. Haney, John J. Lyons, David J. Schneider, Hans F. Schwaiger, Kristi L. Wallace, David Fee, Jeff T. Freymueller, Janet R. Schaefer, Gabrielle Tepp   +10 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Assimilation of Deformation Data for Eruption Forecasting: Potentiality Assessment Based on Synthetic Cases

Frontiers in Earth Science, 2017
In monitoring active volcanoes, the magma overpressure is one of the key parameters used in forecasting volcanic eruptions. This parameter can be inferred from the ground displacements measured on the Earth's surface by applying inversion techniques ...
M. Grace Bato, Virginie Pinel, Yajing Yan   +2 more
doaj   +2 more sources

Pilot study of eruption forecasting with muography using convolutional neural network. [PDF]

Sci Rep, 2020
Muography is a novel method of visualizing the internal structures of active volcanoes by using high-energy near-horizontally arriving cosmic muons. The purpose of this study is to show the feasibility of muography to forecast the eruption event with the
Nomura Y, Nemoto M, Hayashi N, Hanaoka S, Murata M, Yoshikawa T, Masutani Y, Maeda E, Abe O, Tanaka HKM.   +9 more
europepmc   +2 more sources

Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions [PDF]

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 2020
Forecasting natural events such as landslides, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions is a difficult problem compounded by conflicting expectations. Society wants accurate warnings of these events, yet the scientific com­ munity is not able to provide forecasts as accurate as desired because these natural events are only partly understood.
  +4 more sources