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How big will the next eruption be?
Journal of Applied Volcanology, 2022 Anticipating the size of the next volcanic eruption in long-term forecasts is a major problem in both basic and applied volcanology. In this study, we investigate the extent to which eruption size is predictable based on historical and other attribute ...
Paul Colosi, Emily E. Brodsky
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The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting
Nature Communications, 2020 The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaiʻi in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in ...
M. R. Patrick +7 more
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Predictability of Volcano Eruption: lessons from a basaltic effusive volcano [PDF]
, 2003 Volcano eruption forecast remains a challenging and controversial problem despite the fact that data from volcano monitoring significantly increased in quantity and quality during the last decades.This study uses pattern recognition techniques to ...
Aki +27 more
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Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 2022 Axial Seamount is a basaltic hot spot volcano with a summit caldera at a depth of ∼1,500 m below sea level, superimposed on the Juan de Fuca spreading ridge, giving it a robust and continuous magma supply.
William W. Chadwick Jr. +5 more
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Statistical analysis of daily seismic event rate as a precursor to volcanic eruptions [PDF]
, 2003 We analyse time series of daily seismic event rate for the Kilauea, Hawaii, volcano between 1959 and 2000. Individual eruptions are not always preceded by an increase in event rate, and many increases in event rate do not lead to eruption.
Chastin, Sebastien F. M., Main, Ian G.
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Alaska Volcano Observatory Alert and Forecasting Timeliness: 1989–2017
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2018 The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) monitors volcanoes in Alaska and issues notifications and warnings of volcanic unrest and eruption. We evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of eruption forecasts for 53 eruptions at 20 volcanoes, beginning with Mount ...
Cheryl E. Cameron +5 more
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Keeping watch over Colombia’s slumbering volcanoes [PDF]
, 2015 The Volcanological and Seismological Observatories of Manizales, Pasto and Popayan (Colombian Geological Survey) monitor and study the active volcanoes of Colombia using seismological, geodetic, geochemical and other techniques.
BATTAGLIA, MAURIZIO +5 more
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Volcano remote sensing with ground-based spectroscopy [PDF]
, 2005 The chemical compositions and emission rates of volcanic gases carry important information about underground magmatic and hydrothermal conditions, with application in eruption forecasting.
Burton M.R +5 more
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Volcanic Risk Mitigation that Could Have Been Derailed but Wasn’t: Pinatubo, Philippines 1991
Frontiers in Earth Science, 2021 This is the story of a successful risk mitigation effort at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 that could easily have failed. The counterfactuals are the myriad of ways that the effort could have failed but didn’t.
Chris Newhall
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Frontiers in Earth Science, 2018 Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that provide a robust and flexible framework for understanding complex systems. Limited case studies have demonstrated the potential of BNs in modeling multiple data streams for eruption ...
Annemarie Christophersen +6 more
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